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Bodog Line Moves – Fall 2007

Observation on BoDog and their line management.

It is common knowledge that lines moves when the public bets heavy one way. But, Offshore sportsbooks typically don’t let it sway too much. You may see an over/under mover 2 points and a point spread may move up to a whole point, but rarely beyond that. They really don’t want too much line disparity because then you have so many customers playing so many different lines and it is really hard to balance the action. Not only that, you may get some wise guys playing “tweeners” – where they bet it both ways – before it moves, then after it moves, to try to land on that magic middle number. So moving a line too much can be hazardous for your book much like investing in a free online poker room if you accede to a bluff though you got the winning hand.

One thing we have noticed over the years is BoDog does not hesitate to move the lines a great deal. Some of their games gave fluctuated 2 points one way and all the way back the same day. Realistically, with the bankroll they are working with, they could leave the opening lines riding all the way and just outlast the sports betting action. I mean, after all, this is how bookies get rich. If they really only made the 10% like the model was designed to do, then they would just have enough to pay the overhead costs. Books make their money taking big chances and letting the public make mistakes.

Another fact that we have witnessed is Bodog circles games way more regularly. Yesterday, I went to drop a parlay and a teaser on a couple games and all of them were circled. Usually a circle is a bookie with cold feet. I guess maybe they just pay a whole lot of attention to their action and adjust. But, from personal experience, the circles ended up helping us out. I usually would have lost most of those circled games.

My advice, if I were running their book is this, raise the limits on all types of bets. Only circle a game when you absolutely must do so. And don’t move a line more than a point.

SA Staff