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Brady’s Back, How Bad Will the Patriots Beat the Browns

October 5, 2016

Tom Brady is back. The star New England quarterback has served his four-game suspension and returns under center for New England on Sunday on the road against the Cleveland Browns.

Sportsbooks are expecting the Patriots to give the Browns a beating on Sunday, as the line opening had New England as 10.5-point chalk on the road, which was easily the biggest point spread for the NFL schedule in Week 5.

Brady’s presence will make a huge impact on the offense for the Patriots that Buffalo shutdown and shutout last week 16-0.

Last season, New England averaged 29 points per game with Brady playing every game of the regular season, but through four games this season sans Brady, the offense has averaged just 20.2 points per game.

However, with such a large spread, it might be difficult for the Patriots to keep it late in the game. Since 2000, New England is 4-5-1 ATS when a road favorite of double digits.

Across the league, over that same period with the same parameters, the road favorite is only 32-49 ATS.

In 2015, Brady helped New England to six routs of 17 or more points, with two being played on the road.

The Browns will likely not surprise anyone with their play. Cleveland over its past seven games as a home dog is 0-7 straight up and 1-5-1 against the number. During the past three seasons, Cleveland has lost at home by 13 or more points 8 times.

Simulation game models have the game at 28-17 New England, which would give them the cover on the opening line of 10.5 points.

However, simulators do not play games, they read numbers and Brady is going to do everything in his power to show the NFL just how upset he is over his just completed suspension.

That can be both good and bad for New England. He could help the Patriots to a rout or he could press too hard and cause turnovers or errors that could keep the game close.

Records on the season are in New England’s favor to cover. The Patriots are 3-1 SU and ATS after four games while Cleveland is 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS.

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