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Broncos Chargers

Most online betting players love a good shootout (unless they took the under on it), and they should get to see another one on Monday night between a pair of division rivals as the San Diego Chargers hosts the Denver Broncos in an AFC West battle. Both have offenses that can light up anyone in the league, and while the Broncos may lose, they won’t go down without a fight, which will keep the Chargers from covering a double-digit spread.

•What: NFL betting
•When: Monday, November 22nd, 8:30 PM ET
•Where: Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA
•Pick: Denver Broncos +10
What’s On The Line
Only two games separate the top from the bottom in the AFC West, where the Broncos (3-6) laid a 49-29 beat down on the Kansas City Chiefs last week, while the Chargers (4-5) were on a bye week. A win is crucial to starting the stretch run on a high note, and a loss could very well eliminate one of the teams from the division race once and for all. Also, it’s a division rivalry game, like they need any other reasons.

Offensive Matchups: Broncos Chargers Betting
Kyle Orton is second in the NFL in yards, and he added another 296 yards and four touchdowns to his stats last week against the Chiefs. The trio of Brandon Lloyd, Demaryius Thomas and Jabar Gaffney are quietly turning into one of the best receiving corps in the NFL, but the most impressive thing about it all is Orton’s ability to create off the play-action pass….even though the Broncos are dead last in the league running the ball. They did manage to run for 153 yards last week, with 106 coming from Knowshon Moreno, and they’ll need more of that to win in San Diego.

Orton is second only to Philip Rivers in yards, and Rivers’ ability to produce while Vincent Jackson was out, along with a limping Antonio Gates and a bunch of receivers you’ve never heard of before, has been underrated. The running game is 16th in the NFL, despite rookie Ryan Mathews being a disappointment with injuries, although Mike Tolbert has been a revelation. Still, as Rivers goes, the Chargers go, and they’re going to keep him right as San Diego has given up 21 sacks this year, which is the same amount as the Broncos have allowed. If the Chargers didn’t turn the ball over so much, they’d be even better.

Betting Edge: Draw

Defensive Matchups: Broncos Chargers Betting
This is where the Broncos struggle, coming in 25th in the league. Even though they whipped the Chiefs, Denver gave up 484 yards, including 469 yards through the air to Matt Cassel. The Broncos have just 13 sacks this year, and they’re clearly missing the injured Elvis Dumervil, who led the league in sacks last year. That leaves the secondary exposed and they’re going to get roasted by the Chargers if they can’t get to Rivers.

The Chargers are behind only the New York Giants in terms of total defense, which may surprise some people, but San Diego is solid from front to back. The problem is that they don’t force enough turnovers, and with the offense turning the ball over, the Chargers are last in the AFC in turnover margin. San Diego’s No.3-ranked pass defense is going to have their hands full with all the weapons at Denver’s disposal, and like the Broncos, they’re going to need pressure on the quarterback.

Betting Edge: Chargers

Notable Injuries: Broncos Chargers Betting
Cornerback Andre Goodman (quadriceps) is unlikely to play, but other than that, the Broncos are healthy.

The Chargers aren’t so lucky, as tight end Antonio Gates (toe) will likely be a game-time decision, along with Mathews (ankle). Receivers Malcolm Floyd (hamstring) and Legadu Naanee (hamstring) practiced and should be able to go on Monday night.

Betting Edge: Broncos

Outlook and Pick: Broncos Chargers Betting
NFL betting odds have the Chargers as a 10-point favorite at home, and they’re 3-2 both SU and ATS in their last five at “The Q” against the Broncos, who are 1-3 ATS on the road and 2-5 ATS as an underdog. But we’re going to go against the grain and take the points on the Broncos, who have an offense that can keep up with the Chargers, even on the road. Also, if Gates doesn’t play, that robs the Chargers of their best weapon and hurts the deep threats, which takes a little air out of their sails. We think the Chargers will win the game straight up, but they won’t cover the sports betting spread.

Stan’s Pick: Denver Broncos