Can John Rothschild Convert Again In The Preakness?
Scott Morris | May 17, 2019
First some facts that may be useful for your handicapping.
- Favorites have converted in the Preakness more than any other major. They’ve compiled an impressive winning rate of 51%.
- This year’s edition has a record low number of Derby starters, with just four(4).
- Six of the last seven winners had their final preps in either Arkansas (Ark. Derby) or California (Santa Anita Derby).
My four(4) top choices:
Improbable – Will likely be your favorite. Current Preakness odds
What I Like:
- Baffert had three(3) in the Derby, and others on the periphery.
- This is the only one he saw fit for the 2nd leg of the Triple Crown.
What I Question:
Although going 3/3 as a two year old, this colt hasn’t been as game this season.
Alwaysmining – Will be going for his seventh win in a row.
What I Like:
- He’s beaten Win, Win, Win and Dubai runner-up, Gray Magician
- Can win with fast or slower fractions.
- Seems to prefer the top, but we’ve seen him rate.
What I Question:
Most in here have raced in tougher conditions.
Win Win Win – Could surprise at longer odds.
What I Like:
- Connections have acknowledged that he didn’t like the slop in last.
- Addition of blinks could be a major help. He’s been zig zagging the final 8th of a mile in his dry track starts, while looking like he had more to give.
What I Question:
Although getting shuffled in the Derby and finishing better than others, he was never in the race.
Bourbon War – Worth a shot in a relatively wide open race at benevolent odds.
What I Like:
- I’m willing to discount his Florida Derby start, because he seems to be a horse that likes to run into a faster pace.
- He didn’t get it that day, but should with this field.
- In addition, looks like he would have beaten “Code of Honor” in the Fountain of Youth, but ran out of track. Saturday’s race is an extra 1/8th mile.
What I Question:
Zero stakes wins.
To get Preakness and Weekend selections click here
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Contributed by John Rothschild
(Recent articles at SI, ESPN, Bloomberg News, New York Sports Scene, USRacing)
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