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Golden State vs New Orleans NBA Free Pick

April 27, 2018

Saturday night April 28, 2018 at 10:30 PM EST – The Pelicans of New Orleans are in California to do battle on the court with the Golden State Warriors. The line was issued at GSW -7.5 but has since moved to GSW -9, the total is 207 points. You can pay attention to the moving odds with our live betting odds feed.

As of the time I am writing this article (Friday Night) there is lopsided betting by the public on New Orleans. 75% of the money and 80% of the tickets are on the Pelicans. From an ATP (against the public) standpoint, it is shaping up to be a good play on the Warriors. But before we go all in on the Warriors, let’s delve into the numbers.

When looking at the overall NBA playoff picture, the Pelicans just swept a good Portland Trail Blazers team. This is probably why the public is ready to jump on those 9 points. But, Golden State just won the series against a very good Spurs team 4-1.

The Pelicans are 9-1 overall in their last ten games played. They are also 9-1 ATS (against the spread). The Warriors’ last ten games have not been as impressive. They went 6-4 SU and just 5-5 ATS.

HEAD to HEAD

This season the Pelicans and the Warriors have played one another four times. Golden State won 3 of the 4 games played. In these four games the ATS record is split at 2-2.

The Pelicans have averaged 111 points per game on offense this season. They allow 110 PPG. That makes for only a 1 point scoring differential. Golden State scores 113 and allows 106.

Against the spread, New Orleans is 49-36-1. Golden State is 36-49-1. At home Golden State is just 18-25-1 ATS. The Pelicans are 28-15 ATS away from home. There is a clear-cut ATS advantage here for New Orleans.

I have to say with the way New Orleans has been playing and scoring, it is hard to bet against them. But you must remember, they are traveling clear across the country to play this game and it is very late at night for them. 10:30 at night to be exact. Who is fresh and ready to play at 10:30 at night? I think with the ATP pointing to Golden State and the home court, home time zone advantage, the smart play here is to take the Warriors at home laying points. Check out these top sportsbooks to throw down on the NBA playoffs.

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