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Largest NFL Underdogs to Win Outright

November 28, 2018
two TD underdogs

This weekend will feature one of the larger point spreads of the season when one of the NFL’s best teams visits one of the NFL’s worst teams. The 9-2 KC Chiefs wil be at the 2-9 Oakland Raiders. The points spread currently has the Chiefs -15.5 points.

Although up to 80% of the public money has been on KC to win and cover the spread, there is discussion in the betting circles about an outright Oakland win. That got us to put on our thinking caps and pull up all the data on NFL teams that were more than a two TD underdog who went on to win outright.

Earlier this year, there was a prime example of this when the Bills beat the 17 point favorite Vikings. It is a rare feat indeed in that is has only happened 14 times since 1995 (including post season play).

YearGameSpread
1995Redskins 24, Cowboys 17+17.5
1995Panthers 13, 49ers 7+14
1995Saints 11, 49ers 7+14
1996Jaguars 30, Broncos 27 *+14
1999Browns 16, Steelers 15+14.5
2001Cardinals 21, Eagles 20+14
2001Patriots 20, Rams 17 **+14
2009Buccaneers 20, Saints 17+14
2009Raiders 13, Eagles 9+14
2010Vikings 24, Eagles 14+14
2017Giants 23, Broncos 10+14
2017Dolphins 20, Falcons 17+14
2018 Bills 27, Vikings 6+17

* Postseason
** Super Bowl

If you’re one of the very few people on Earth that thinks the Raiders have a chance to beat the Chiefs this weekend, then you should definitely consider betting the money line. The Raiders are currently listed at +825 at top sportsbooks, meaning that if you plop down $100 on this bet, you will win $825.

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