Line Analysis of Titans vs Colts & Free Pick
Scott Morris | November 12, 2020
Thursday Night Football
- Time: 8:20pm on NFL Network
- (6-2) Tennessee Titans vs (5-3) Indianapolis Colts
- Current Point Spread: Indy -1 at top sportsbooks
This game is a bit of a challenge to handicap. These are two teams with kind of the same thing going on. They both have decent defenses (although Colts allow 5 points less per game). They both have strong offenses that play erratic from time to time.
The rushing game advantage clearly lays with Tennessee and their power house RB Derrick Henry. He is #2 in the NFL with 843 yards rushing. The Colts leading rusher is Jonathan Taylor, who has 416 yards rushing. For NFL rushing list click here
QB play and ability is about even. Both Rivers and Tannehill show flashes of brilliance but also moments of melt down when it counts most. I believe Rivers is coasting on fumes at this point and that Tannehill will never truly be elite. Both are on my very own personal “do not bet list”.
Head to Head
Since 2012, Indy is 13-3 SU and 10-4-2 ATS against Tennessee. They pretty much have their number every year. A more recent sampling is that Indianapolis is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Tennessee. Indianapolis is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Tennessee. These facts may help explain the next category.
Line Movement
The line was Tennessee -2 for much of the week. It has slowly shifted all the way to Indy -1. The Colts are getting T.Y Hilton back. This may be a heavy factor for the major three point line movement as well. According to Covers.com, 68% of their members are picking the Titans. So, if more people are picking the Titans why did the line move against that action? Probably the trends I mentioned above. But this is Phillip Rivers, he will probably throw a pick at the end of the game to lose it. I am picking Tennessee. Also, in their previous 14 primetime appearances, the Colts are an awful 3-11 SU and 6-7-1 ATS. Food for thought.
