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MNF Falcons at Buccaneers Free Pick

December 18, 2017
free pick

Tonight is Monday Night Football, ending an exciting week 15 in the NFL. The game features the Atlanta Falcons visiting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Both teams have had a disappointing year but only one has playoff aspirations. The Falcons are 8-5 and are currently in the 6th seed for the playoffs. Tampa is just 4-9 after a year of bad play and injury and will not be going to the playoffs.

Against the spread Atlanta is 6-7. Tampa is 3-9-1. Tampa was supposed to be a playoff team this year after finishing last year very strong and barely missing the playoffs. It hasn’t quite worked out that way.

Atlanta scores 24 points on offense and allows 20 PPG on defense. Tampa is basically the exact opposite. The spread has Atlanta favored by a TD and the total is 48. Head to head these two teams are 5-5 SU and ATS in the last ten games played.

The spread came out at ATL -5. It has since climbed to 7.  The total is 48 but should be 44. They factor in MNF, good weather and OVER bettors and bam, you get 48 points.

The betting is a little lopsided with Atlanta getting 65% of the tickets and 58% of the public money. There is no real ATP angle here though.

How it Will Play Out

Atlanta will have success on offense and will be able to run and pass. I see them scoring about 24 points. Tampa, on the other hand, has been struggling. Their offense is not in synch and their star players are not making plays. I can see a TD pass from Winston to Evans and a few FG’s to boot, but they won’t be able to hang with Atlanta.

My instinct here is telling me to take the UNDER because the total is inflated and to take ATL. Buy the half point and make it ATL -6.5 if you can just in case it lands on a TD.

 

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