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NBA Playoff Trends for First Round Games

April 15, 2016

The NBA Playoffs open on Saturday with 16 teams playing for the NBA Title.

Here are a few strategies that might come in handy when placing a bet during the start of the postseason.

Usually No. 8 seeds are represented by teams that have had to do all they could to grab the eighth and final spot in their respective conference.

The team is usually not taken seriously by bettors or odds makers when facing the top seed in the conference. Their record over the past 20 years of the playoffs bears that out. Eighth seeds are 54-133 straight up versus No. 1 seeds.

The New York Knicks in 1996, the Golden State Warriors in 2007 and the Philadelphia 76ers in 2012 were the only teams during that 20-year stretch to upset the top seed and move into round 2 of the playoffs.

When it comes to back-to-back games against the No. 1 seed, the No. 8 team is just 4-25 SU while 9-20 ATS. Including a run of 0-16 SU while 2-14 ATS whenever the No. 8 seed are coming off a spread loss of 4 points more.

Upset higher seed losers end up being winners. When a team is upset as the favorite in an opening round game at home and is playing at home in the game immediately after.

Those numbers show the favored in that second game is an incredible 90-24 SU while an impressive 68-42-4 ATS. If they are playing a seed of No. 6 or lower they favorite is 48-6 SU while 38-16-2 ATS.

Underdogs of double digits have done will during the opening round games, especially following a loss in the playoffs. These dogs of double-digits coming off a loss are 32-17-2 ATS.

If the same dogs are in a game, that has the over/under at 193 or higher, the dogs move up to 26-7 ATS, which includes 19-3 ATS when the foe is non-divisional.

Teams entering the postseason on a down note of three straight losses are often punched out easily. As an easy knockout target, the teams with three straight losses entering the postseason are 46-63 SU while 44-61-4 ATS on the road.

Road dogs of over six points on a losing streak of three games are just 3-27 SU while 8-22 ATS.