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NCAA Basketball: Iowa State at Texas

The Iowa State Cyclones take on the No. 5 Texas Longhorns in Big 12 action Tuesday at the Frank Erwin Special Events Center (8 pm ET, ESPN3). February 22, 2011

Iowa State is 14-13 SU, 10-11 ATS and 1-11 in Big 12 play. Texas is 23-4 SU, 16-5 ATS, and 11-1 in the Big 12. Texas leads the conference by one game over the second-place No. 2 Kansas Jayhawks. Iowa State is at the bottom of the conference.

Texas is 8-2 straight up but just 2-7-1 in the past 10 meetings, eight of which have gone over the total. The teams haven’t met since March 10 last season when the Longhorns won 82-75 but failed to cover as a 9-point home favorite, with the score going over the total of 146. Texas won the first meeting last season 90-83 on Jan. 13 but failed to cover as a 7.5-point road favorite. That score went over the total of 154.

Iowa State lost its ninth-straight game on Saturday 76-70 to the Missouri Tigers. The Tigers covered as a 4.5-point road favorite and the score went under the total of 157.

Texas lost 70-67 to the Nebraska Cornhuskers on Saturday, failing to cover as a 6.5-point road favorite, with score going over the total of 124.

(above portion from JustBet)

Our take here at SA is simple. Coming off a loss at Nebraska we expect Texas to play better and more soundly. And if the spread was 10 or so, we would be inclined to wager Texas. But the line is 18 and too high. These guys are not Kansas. They don’t have the firepower like Kansas does. They probably will not come out and win by 20. In fact, they will win by less than 15. We are all over Iowa State here. They are an ‘in conference team’ with a winning record and should keep it closer than 18.

BETTING TRENDS
IOWA STATE
Iowa State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Iowa State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road

Iowa State is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Texas
TEXAS
Texas is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Texas’s last 9 games
Texas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Texas’s last 6 games at home
Texas is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Iowa State
Texas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Iowa State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas’s last 5 games when playing Iowa State
Texas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Iowa State
Texas is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Iowa State