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NFL Free Pick: Bengals vs Chiefs

October 21, 2018

Sunday Night Football during Week 7 of the NFL regular season features two AFC playoff contenders when the Cincinnati Bengals visit Arrowhead Stadium to play the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs hold the best record in the AFC while the Bengals are tied for first place in the AFC North with Baltimore.

The current line on top sportsbooks has Kansas City favored by 6 points with the over/under total 57.5.

Both teams suffered tough losses a week again as Cincinnati was defeated in the final seconds 28-21 by the Pittsburgh Steelers on a touchdown pass, while Kansas City rallied in the second half only to come up short 43-40 on a last second field goal by the New England Patriots.

Cincinnati is No. 23 in total offense yet No. 6 in scoring thanks in part to a red zone touchdown percentage of 75% that is tops in the league. Quarterback Andy Dalton has 14 touchdown passes and seven interceptions. Four touchdown passes have been to Tyler Boyd and three to veteran wine receiver A.J. Green.

Defensively, the Bengals have played very well against the run expected in a loss to Carolina during Week 3. However, the secondary is much different, but much of that is due to little pass rush by the defensive line giving opposing quarterbacks time to find receivers.

The Kansas City offense is on a record pace with quarterback Patrick Mahomes throwing for 1,865 yards, 18 touchdowns and four interceptions in six games. Running back Kareem Hunt and wide out Tyreek Hill have combined to score 13 touchdowns.

Defensively the Chiefs are dead last in the league for total defense and No. 27 in scoring defense. The Kansas City secondary has struggled with the pass and is without star Eric Berry. The safety is stilling recovering from an Achilles injury and linebacker Justin Houston is doubtful for the game with a hamstring injury.

Mahomes became the first quarterback for the Chiefs to throw for 300 yards in five straight games and the second in the NFL after Aaron Rodgers to accomplish the feat since 2016.

Prediction: The Kansas City offense has proven to be nearly unstoppable and even in the loss to the Patriots still put 40 points on the board. Look for plenty of points, as the Chiefs secondary is suspect against the passing game. Kansas City will score more often and win and cover 38-28.

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