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NFL Free Pick: Chiefs vs Broncos

October 1, 2018

Week 4 of the NFL regular season concludes with a Monday Night Football AFC West showdown between two big rivals when the Kansas City Chiefs visit Mile High City to play the Denver Broncos.

The current line on top sportsbooks has Kansas City favored by 3.5 points with the over/under point total on 54.5.

Quarterback Patrick Mahomes leads the potent offensive attack for the undefeated Chiefs. Kansas City is the NFL’s highest scoring team thanks to the record-setting 13 touchdown passes through three weeks by Mahomes.

Denver linebacker Von Miller calls Mahomes a great quarterback who is young, quick, athletic and able to make any type pass.

Kansas City defeated the San Francisco 49ers last week 38-27 with Mahomes throwing for 314 yards with three touchdowns. Kansas City has scored 38 points or more in three straight weeks.

Tight end Travis Kelce caught eight passes for 114 yards, while speedy wide out Tyreek Hill was contained by the Broncos defense and held without a TD. Running back Kareem Hunt had two touchdown runs but is averaging just 3.2 yards a carry after leading the NFL in rushing in 2017 as a rookie.

Defense is another story for the Chiefs. As good as the offense is, the defense has struggled ranking dead last in the NFL in yards allowed per game at 474 and is No. 30 in points allowed at 30.7 per game.

While the Chiefs are unbeaten, the Broncos won the first two games to start the season, but lost last week to Baltimore 27-14.

Denver’s new quarterback Case Keenum has already thrown five interceptions through three week games, just two less that all of last season. Emmanuel Sanders is the leading receiver for the Broncos with 19 catches, while fellow wide out Demaryius Thomas has caught 16.

The Broncos own the fourth-ranked running game in the league at 350 yards with Royce Freeman and Phillip Lindsay sharing the duties. Broncos tight end Jake Butt tore his ACL in practice Thursday and will be lost for the season.

The Broncos defense led by Miller will look to put pressure on Mahomes to force the second-year quarterback into making mistakes. Miller was tied for the NFL lead in sacks with four heading into play in Week 4. In his last eight games against Kansas City, Miller has eight sacks as well as 11 tackles for a loss.

Prediction: Kansas City has proven to be unstoppable on offense and stops opposing offenses just enough to outscore them. Until that changes, take the Chiefs to win and cover on the road 35-20.

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