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NFL Free Pick: Dolphins vs Panthers

November 13, 2017

Week 10 of the NFL regular season concludes with Monday Night Football when the Miami Dolphins visit the Carolina Panthers. The current line on top sportsbooks has Carolina favored by 9 points with the over/under point total on 38.5.

Entering this game, Miami on the season is 4-4 straight up and 3-3-2 against the spread. On the road, the Dolphins are 2-2 SU and ATS. Carolina on the season is 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS. At home, the Panthers are 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS.

Carolina is trying to keep contact with first place in the NFC South thanks in a big part to having the NFL’s No. 1 defense which yields just 274 yards each game, while it is No. 2 in sacks with 29. Carolina will be facing a Miami team that is averaging just 14.5 points a game, good for last in the NFL.

The Carolina defense is led by linebacker Luke Kuechly who leads the team in tackles with 65 and Julius Peppers who leads the team in sacks with 7.5.

In last week’s loss to the Raiders, Miami quarterback Jay Cutler threw for 311 yards. Nonetheless the Dolphins have lost two straight.

Carolina has won two straight and sits one game behind division leaders New Orleans. Panthers quarterback Cam Newton has thrown 11 touchdown passes and rushed for two others in his five appearances on Monday Night Football.

Miami’s running game is by tandem following the trade of starter Jay Ajayi to the Eagles. Kenyan Drake and Damien Williams shared the duties versus the Raiders. Wide receiver Jarvis Landry is second in the league with 56 receptions at the start of Week 10.

Last Sunday, Newton had 86 yards rushing in the Panthers 20-17 victory over the Falcons. Rookie back Christian McCaffrey rushed for 66 yards and recorded his first touchdown on the ground. McCaffrey is also leading the team in receptions with 54. Each week McCaffrey appears to became more important in the Panthers offensive scheme.

Miami defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh has 3.5 sacks this season, with all coming in the last five games.

Dolphins safety Reshad Jones is leading the team with 55 tackles.

Miami is 2-0-2 in its last 4 games played on natural grass.

Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games played at home.

With this free pick, we like Carolina to cover.

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