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NFL Free Picks – Week 14 – 2018

December 7, 2018
free pick week 14 nfl 2018

In this article we are going to go over three NFL games that are taking place in week 14, on December 9, 2018. The odds are current sportsbook lines as of time publishing. 

Game 1

Houston (-4.5) vs Indianapolis (+4.5)

These divisions rivals square off one more time and it should be a good one. Everyone know that the Texans are the hottest team in the league, firing off 9 wins in a row. But, Indianapolis had just won five in a row before losing at Jacksonville last week.

The Jags getting smashed on TNF last night makes the Jags loss look that much worse. But , in the NFL, everything is week to week and you cannot make the mistake of putting too much stock in what happened last week. 

Here are some trends that should help you see why we are picking Indianapolis in this matchup:

  • Houston is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis.
  • Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis.

Look, the Texans are good, real good. But Indianapolis seems to have their number more often than not. And Indy is not happy after losing to Jacksonville. They know they are better than that last game and should keep it competitive in Houston this Sunday. 

Game 2

San Francisco (+4) vs. Denver (-4)

Neither team is exactly “world beaters” this season. But Denver is playing good enough ball for a shot at the wild card. They are 6-6. Meanwhile, the 49ers are just plain bad. They are 2-10 and are starting a QB that came off their practice squad just a month ago. 

The teams are heading in different directions, this is for certain. Denver has won three games in a row, whereas, SF has lost three. If this game were being played on a neutral field and were a “pick em'”, I would be all about taking Denver. But trends tell me something else:

  • San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
  • San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Denver

I do take this trend information with a grain of salt being that the last time they played was four years ago. But, give me the home underdog which has a history of beating the visiting team every time. Take The 49ers +4.

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