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NFL Saints at Vikings Spread Analysis and Free Pick

January 12, 2018
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To me this is the most interesting matchup on the board this weekend. We see how good a team like New Orleans can be and we know what Drew Brees is capable of. He is a true NFL ironman. Then on the other side you have this really tough Vikings team that has built its team from the ground up with very talented players and then out of nowhere the NFL journeyman Case Keenum starts playing the best he has in his entire career.

The game starts at 4:40pm EST. The spread was issued at Minnesota -3.5 and total at 44.5. The line went up a little to Vikings -4 and the total went up to 46 within 24 hours. Today, the line has been moved up to Minny -5 and the total is sitting at 46.5.  It is slowly creeping upward, which can be expected with the betting public, favorites and overs.

Some of the sportsbooks we talked to have pretty even action on this game. They are reporting just a slight imbalance on Minnesota. 55% of tickets and 57% of money. One sportsbook we talked to earlier that caters to the more recreational sports bettor reported heavier lopsided action on Minnesota. They reported 70% of tickets and 76% of the money. The moneyline has Minnesota at -235 (2.35/1 favorite) and New Orleans at +200 (1/2 underdog).  67% of the betting public is on the Saints moneyline. People love taking the underdog on money lines. Last week that really paid off when Tennessee (+395) beat Kansas City straight up and Atlanta (+225) beat the Rams straight up.

54% of the tickets are on the OVER but 75% of the money is on the OVER. Joe public strikes again.

Head to Head

Looking at our game matchups tool, we can see these teams are 5-5 SU their last ten meetings. Minnesota holds the ATS edge at 7-3. They played this exact game back on 9/11/17 but the only difference was that Sam Bradford was the QB. He had a remarkable game and threw for 346 yards and 3 TD’s. Brees was good too, throwing for 291 yards and 1 TD, but not good enough to win. The Vikings won 29-19. The Saints really struggled running the ball so you can bet that Minnesota will try to duplicate the exact formula they had four months ago.

How I See it Playing Out

Soothsayer time. Time to put on my Johnny Carson’s “Carnac the Magnificent” hat (reference for old people like me) and tell you how I see it playing out. This game will be much closer than the one played four months ago. Drew Brees is in top form and he can really whip it around on the carpet. I am not so sure that the week off helps any of the top seeds. I think that The Saints are tuned up whereas the Vikings haven’t played a game in a few weeks. The Vikings could win this game but Brees getting five points seems like a gift. I like The Saints +5. The Vikings are very good and are at home but give me Brees and 5 points all day long.

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