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Super Bowl 52 Picks

February 3, 2018
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You read that right, picks with an S. In this article I will preview Super Bowl 52 and give my selection for the side and total. The New England Patriots represent the AFC and face the Philadelphia Eagles who represent the NFC. The current spread is New England -4.5 and 48.5 points is the total. The line was originally issued at NE -6 and total at 46.5 points. Both numbers have since moved – Super Bowl 52 line movement

The game kicks off Sunday February 4, 2018 at 6:30 pm EST. It is being played in Minneapolis, Minnesota at their new state of the art stadium. The weather forecast is inconsequential for the game because it is an indoor stadium. It will be broadcast on NBC. Al Michaels (play-by-play), Cris Collinsworth (analyst), Michele Tafoya (sideline reporter) will be the announcers. The National Anthem will be sung by PINK.

The Patriots come into the game healthy and ready. They expect to have Tight End Rob Gronkowski and RB Rex Burkhead in the lineup. Both players have faced injury this year. The Patriots are 13-3 straight up this season in the regular season and of course 2-0 in the postseason. Overall the Patriots are 15-3 and 12-6 against the spread. They average almost 29 points per game on offense and allow 18 PPG.

The Eagles are without their starting QB Carson Wentz who went down to injury in December in a game vs. The LA Rams. Backup Nick Foles has played well in relief going 4-1. They lost to the Cowboys in the last game of the season, a game which has no relevance to the postseason and therefore was played mostly by Philly’s backup players. The Eagles share almost identical numbers with the Patriots. They are also 15-3 and 12-6 ATS. They also score 28 points per game and allow about 18 PPG. Both teams are right near the same number in turnover differential (NE -0.28, PHI -0.67).

Head to Head

Head to head the teams have not played one another since 2015 so I really don’t think that information will glean that much insight. In that amount of time the personnel turnover has been so large we would be analyzing outdated information.

Analysis

OK first I would like to address the betting total. The initial total of 46.5 was derived using math. It is not a magic number dreamt up by the man behind the curtain. Take both teams average scoring offense, add total scores allowed by defense and then cut in half. You get 46.35 points. The betting public has run it up two points for two reasons: 1) They hate betting Unders 2) Indoor climate controlled environment. If you take into account the games that the Eagles have played post Wentz injury you get 22.4 PPG. But don’t forget, one of those was a shutout allowed by backup players. My series of thoughts on the total goes like this:

  1. Two week layoff from last actual game
  2. Super Bowl Jitters
  3. Both teams have great defenses

Conclusion

Based on the information my last paragraph I think the UNDER is the smart play here.

The side correlates directly to the Under in a way. I believe that Philly has a ton of pressure on them and their backup QB. They are going against NE, who everyone knows is a five time Super Bowl champion and their four-time Super Bowl MVP. I am of the mindset that Philadelphia will struggle on offense. This should keep the Under intact. I think that the Patriots offense will figure out Philly’s vaunted defense and put up enough points to win and cover. I like the Pats and the Under. Sportsbooks are running pretty good Super Bowl 52 Bonuses right now so you can hurry over there and get in on the action if you like.

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