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Texans vs Bills Playoff Free Pick

January 2, 2020
Texans vs Bills January 4, 2020

The post-season appears as it will be an exciting one. There are multiple teams that really could walk away with the Lombardi trophy next month.

Game one of the 2019-2020 layoffs features a wild-card matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the Houston Texans. The Bills have been very tough this year and had to travel this first round because they are the same division as the Patriots, who win that division basically every year. The Bills and Texans both finished the season with a 10-6 record.

The sportsbooks currently have the Texans slightly favored in this one, by -2.5 points to be exact. The total is sitting at 44 points even. The total opened at 42 points and has since been bet to 44. That is because a full 68% of the money is on the over.

Buffalo lost its last game vs the Jets because they were sitting some starters. The same held true for Houston. They rested players against Tennessee. Both teams would probably be 11-5 if they needed to actually win their last game. Head to head the teams have played 9 times and Houston has the slight advantage there, 5-4. Buffalo is 5-4 ATS vs Houston all time.

The Bills offense is a bit lackluster. They score only 19 PPG. They are able to win games by utilizing their outstanding defense. The defense allows only 16 PPG. The Bills allow under 200 YPG passing and just 103 YPG rushing. They allow under 300 yards of total offense per game.

The Texans score 23 PPG but allow 24 PPG. When you see those splits you assume they would have a losing (or .500) record. But some of the games they lost were very lopsided while many of their wins were close.

Trends

Houston is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games.

Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home.

Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston.

Buffalo is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road.

The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Buffalo’s last 10 games on the road.

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston’s last 9 games.

The Play

I have to admit that the Under seems to be the play screaming out to us here. The fact that the total has moved up a few points and people are still betting the Over makes me even more comfortable taking the Under.

The Bills lackluster offense mixed with the fact that J.J. Watt is returning has me thinking they will not score a lot of points. The Bills defense should force the Texans offense to punt a lot. This should be a scrappy game and I cannot see the total eclipsing 44 points.

 

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