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beckett5The public knows good pitching when it sees it. Tonight’s Red Sox vs. Yankees line up features two of the games better pitchers: C.C. Sabathia (14-7, 3.57 ERA) and Josh Beckett (14-4. 3.38 ERA). Statistically if these two guys pitched the entire game, it would end with a total over/under of 7 runs. But modern pitching set ups being the way they are, the bullpen will send in a few of it’s own pitchers and therefore the over/under was set a bit higher at 8.5.  The betting public thinks this is too high. They have placed their wagers and as of 4:30 pm EST, 70% have taken the under. And the money line on that wager has even moved a bit to a -115 wager.

A majority of the time when the public is all over a side or total, it will turn out to be a bad bet.  Consensus thinking is usually wrong and swayed by public perception and falsehoods. Not only that, but you usually have access to the line after the public has whittled it down with thousands of bets.  I personally like to go the other way of the public and therefore I am putting up a dime on the over 8.5 tonight. Good luck and enjoy the game.