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Updated Super Bowl LI Futures

October 5, 2016

Twenty-five percent of the NFL regular season is in the books. Teams that look to shine this season are rising to the top of their respective divisions.

There are teams odds makers expected to be at the top and there they are, while others are playing much poorer than expected. At the same time, there have been a few surprises over the first four weeks of the season.

After four weeks, it is easy to select a handful of NFL teams that have no chance of winning the Super Bowl in February.

However, there is another large number of teams that can be crossed of as contenders. Overall, the teams that sit currently at 2-2 historical betting numbers show they do not have much of a chance of lifting the Vince Lombardi trophy.

Here are the numbers. Since 1982, 85% of all Super winners began their title season with a 3-1 record or better. That amounts to 29 of the past 34 winners of the Super Bowl.

That means it is highly unlikely that two teams such as Arizona and Carolina who entered the season as two of the top 5 Super Bowl favorites will win as they are both sitting at 1-3 after four weeks.

Just one time in the past 35 years has a team with a record below .500 through the opening four games of the regular season gone on to win the Super Bowl.

The team that accomplished that was the New England Patriots of 2001, who began their season 1-3. That means it can be accomplished, but it is extremely rare.

Therefore, if the current futures board for the Super Bowl seems to have the Cardinals and Panthers at a good value, following their slow start, the odds are overwhelmingly stacked against them and are likely not worth risking.

Eleven teams enter Week 5 at 3-1 or better including the Packers at 2-1 and Eagles at 3-0 who had a bye week last week.

Top 10 Odds to Win Super Bowl LI

New England 4 to 1

Pittsburgh 7 to 1

Seattle 15 to 2

Green Bay 9 to 1

Minnesota 9 to 1

Denver 10 to 1

Philadelphia 22 to 1

Dallas 22 to 1

Arizona 25 to 1

Carolina 25 to 1

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