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MNF Point Spread Spike Analysis

December 10, 2012

It’s basically unexplainable from where we stand that today the New England/Houston NFL MNF line opened at 4, where it has been all week, then at about 10:30 am EST started driving upward. It finally topped six points juts a few hours later. When checking the betting action there is a ton of it coming in, but it isn’t lopsided. 53% of the action is on New England and considering a margin of reporting error it may as well be even.

Sharp money? Perhaps the guys that are more successful than others loaded some heavy action on the Pats today. We have no reports of this being the case as of yet. The only strong public play is that 67.5% of bets are on the OVER which is at 51 points. At the time of me writing this article, however, we are seeing some “bite back” as the line in coming back a bit to 5.5 at most places and a few 5’s on the board.

It stands to reason that the casual bettor and even some pros I know like the Patriots tonight for several reasons. They are at home. They are playing on natural grass. They are playing outdoors. They are playing on Monday Night. They are also on a win streak and have locked up the division for the playoffs.

Whatever your choice, good luck and have some fun watching the game. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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