NFL Week 1 Point Spreads and Analysis
Scott Morris | August 19, 2021
Week one starts tomorrow. But it is never too early to observe and report on what has been happening with the spreads and totals since they were first published months ago.
As we get closer to game day, the fog begins to dissipate and we can tell much better what we are working with.
Big Line Moves
Texans vs Jags
Jacksonville was originally getting three points at Houston and now they are laying the three. This is because QB DeShaun Watson probably won’t play due to sexual assault allegations so serious that even the FBI is now involved. Tyrod Taylor will handle the snap for Houston. Rookie Joey, oops I mean Trevor Lawrence will start for Jacksonville. Tyrod is capable. Take the points and buy the hook.
Saints vs Packers
With Aaron Rodgers in camp, the Packers are a totally different team. The spread swung 5.5 points when it became obvious he was playing this year. The Saints will be trying to find their offensive identity with QB’s Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston.
Largest Spread
The largest spread for week 1 is only 7.5 points and that belongs to the S.F. 49ers who are visiting the Detroit Lions. Detroit has new QB Jared Goff under center. Fans and oddsmakers both have written off Goff and the Lions but that may turn out to be a mistake. Goff has had flashes of brilliance and he has plenty left in the tank being that it is only his sixth year in the league. Besides, what has S.F. QB Jimmy Garapolo done lately that is so great? He was just 3-3 last year as the starting signal-caller and threw for a mere 7 TD’s vs 5 Int’s. (Edit: Tampa has moved to -8 which makes it the largest spread on the board)
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| MATCHUP | SPREAD | OVER/UNDER |
|---|---|---|
| Cardinals at Titans | Titans -3 | 52 |
| Steelers at Bill | Bills -6.5 | 48.5 |
| Seahawks at Colts | Seahawks -3 | 49 |
| Vikings at Bengals | Vikings -3 | 47 |
| Eagles at Falcons | Falcons -3.5 | 48 |
| Jaguars at Texans | Jax -3 | 45 |
| Steelers at Bills | Bills -6.5 | 49 |
| 49ers at Lions | 49ers -7.5 | 46 |
| Jets at Panthers | Panthers -4 | 44 |
| Chargers at Washington | Washington -1 | 44.5 |
| Dolphins at Patriots | Patriots -2.5 | 43.5 |
| Browns at Chiefs | Chiefs -6 | 53 |
| Broncos at Giants | Denver -3 | 41.5 |
| Packers at Saints | Packers -3.5 | 50 |
| Bears at Rams | Rams -7.5 | 46.5 |
| Ravens at Raiders | Ravens -4.5 | 51 |
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