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NFL Week 1 Point Spreads and Analysis

August 19, 2021
Rodgers in camp changes the point spread

Week one starts tomorrow. But it is never too early to observe and report on what has been happening with the spreads and totals since they were first published months ago.

As we get closer to game day, the fog begins to dissipate and we can tell much better what we are working with.

Big Line Moves

Texans vs Jags

Jacksonville was originally getting three points at Houston and now they are laying the three. This is because QB DeShaun Watson probably won’t play due to sexual assault allegations so serious that even the FBI is now involved. Tyrod Taylor will handle the snap for Houston. Rookie Joey, oops I mean Trevor Lawrence will start for Jacksonville. Tyrod is capable. Take the points and buy the hook.

Saints vs Packers

With Aaron Rodgers in camp, the Packers are a totally different team. The spread swung 5.5 points when it became obvious he was playing this year. The Saints will be trying to find their offensive identity with QB’s Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston.

Largest Spread

The largest spread for week 1 is only 7.5 points and that belongs to the S.F. 49ers who are visiting the Detroit Lions. Detroit has new QB Jared Goff under center. Fans and oddsmakers both have written off Goff and the Lions but that may turn out to be a mistake. Goff has had flashes of brilliance and he has plenty left in the tank being that it is only his sixth year in the league. Besides, what has S.F. QB Jimmy Garapolo done lately that is so great? He was just 3-3 last year as the starting signal-caller and threw for a mere 7 TD’s vs 5 Int’s. (Edit: Tampa has moved to -8 which makes it the largest spread on the board)

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MATCHUP SPREAD OVER/UNDER
Cowboys at Buccaneers Bucs -9 52
Cardinals at Titans Titans -3 52
Steelers at Bill Bills -6.5 48.5
Seahawks at Colts Seahawks -3 49
Vikings at Bengals Vikings -3 47
Eagles at Falcons Falcons -3.5 48
Jaguars at Texans Jax -3 45
Steelers at Bills Bills -6.5 49
49ers at Lions 49ers -7.5 46
Jets at Panthers Panthers -4 44
Chargers at Washington Washington -1 44.5
Dolphins at Patriots Patriots -2.5 43.5
Browns at Chiefs Chiefs -6 53
Broncos at Giants Denver -3 41.5
Packers at Saints Packers -3.5 50
Bears at Rams Rams -7.5 46.5
Ravens at Raiders Ravens -4.5 51

 

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