Week 16 NFL Picks – Trends Say to Back These Six Picks

Since we started up the trend picks five weeks ago, they have gone 21-4 against the spread overall. I can’t tell you how many people are betting these plays but I can tell you that the sportsbook I use is not happy.

In order for a pick to make this list it has to have clear an obvious trend data pointing in the right direction. If there is substantial conflicting data then the pick won’t make the list.

Its a fact that certain teams plays better against one club or another. For instance, back when Tom Brady was with the Patriots and they routinely beat every team in the league, you could count on the Miami Dolphins to beat them an average of 1.5 out of 4 games. Certain teams are the “bee in the bonnet” for one another.

Last week saw our trend plays go 3-1 ATS and the one loss was looking damn good with just 7 minutes left in the game. Green Bay was up by two TD’s and covering the 6.5 point spread. They would blow that lead and lose by just one point as greedy overzealous coach John Harbaugh went for two instead of tying the game.

Below you can find the picks for week 16 of the 2021 NFL season. There are six in total.

Green Bay vs Cleveland

Spread: G.B. -7.5 at BetUS.com

There is no doubt that Green Bay is one of the best teams in the league. But they have a history of playing down to the competition. Like I mentioned above, Baltimore had a shot to beat them this past week but went for the 2 point conversion. Tyler Huntley gave the Packer defense all they could handle.

• Green Bay is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games
• Green Bay is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
• Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
• Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
• Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
• Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
• Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
• Cleveland is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road

Regardless of how Green Bay played last week there is clear and concise information that suggests they should win and cover this week. The trend data says to back the Pack and put the money in the bank.

 

Cardinals vs Colts

Spread: Arizona -3 at BetUS.com

My how the mighty have fallen. The Cardinals were the best team in the land a few weeks ago but thanks to back to back losses against the Rams and then the lowly Lions, they are reeling. The Lions loss is especially unforgivable as Detroit had won just one game coming into that matchup.

• Indianapolis is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games
• Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
• Indianapolis is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
• Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
• Indianapolis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
• Arizona is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games at home

Although Arizona is 8-4 ATS in their last 12 home games, trends say that they struggle with the Colts. The Colts are playing well right now and Arizona is coming off back to back losses. Take the Colts.

 

Vikings vs Rams

Spread: Rams -3.5 at BetOnline.ag

The Rams are coming off a decent win against Seattle Tuesday night. The Vikes are coming off an 8 point win vs a Bears team that was literally playing without their entire secondary. At first glance this seems like a game where the Rams should win convincingly but the trends tell a different story.

• Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
• Minnesota is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
• Minnesota is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
• Minnesota is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Rams
• Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing LA Rams
• Minnesota is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against LA Rams

The head to head data suggests that taking the Vikings at home getting the points is the play to make here.

 

Texans vs Chargers

Spread: Chargers -10 at BetOnline.ag

The Texans just beat the Jags in Florida and are feeling pretty good about that fact. I hope they enjoy it because a superior football team is coming to town. The Chargers average 400 yards per game on offense and Houston allows that amount every game too. The Texans only average 250 YPG on offense and allow 10 PPG more than they score. This should be a smackdown by all accounts.

• LA Chargers are 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
• LA Chargers are 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
• LA Chargers isare-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Houston
• LA Chargers are 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Houston
• Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
• Houston is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games
• Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
• Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home

 

Panthers vs Buccaneers

Spread: Bucs -10 at BetOnline.ag

Brady was shut out last week for only the third time in his career. The Bucs are hurting. They lost Chris Godwin for the season and Leonard Fournette looks like he may be placed on the IR. The Panthers are trying to find themselves and look totally lost. Their season is in the crapper. I hate betting against double digit home dogs but the trends say that is exactly what we should do.

• Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
• Tampa Bay is 18-4 SU in its last 22 games
• Tampa Bay is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games on the road
• Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
• Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
• Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Carolina
• Carolina is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
• Carolina is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
• Carolina is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
• Carolina is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home

 

Bengals vs Ravens

Spread: CIN -7 at BetOnline.ag (This game has moved from opening line of PK but because of QB Jackson injury and QB Huntley with covid, it has moved a full TD and should be wagered with caution or disregarded entirely)

The Bengals played well in Denver. But Denver really isn’t that good. And truthfully neither are the Bengals, They are a .500 team. The Ravens look to steady the ship with the return of Lamar Jackson (update: 12/25 not true any longer) on offense. The Ravens own the Bengals and there really is no reason for that not to continue.

• Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
• Baltimore is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games
• Baltimore is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games on the road
• Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
• Baltimore is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cincy
• Cincinnati is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
• Cincinnati is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home

Well there are six plays for you. We hope that more of them win than lose and hope to see you at the cages. Bookmark this site and check back daily for free picks.