College Football National Championship Georgia vs Alabama Free Pick
Scott Morris | January 7, 2022
The biggest college football game of the year will be played in a few days, Monday January 10, 2022 at 8pm EST to be exact. For some people the Georgia vs. Alabama rematch is a great thing and they are looking forward to it. For others, they are sick of Alabama and the SEC in general. Whatever your feelings are, there is no doubt that the best two teams in the country are facing off (again).
Alabama was the pre-season #1 ranked team. Georgia beat then ranked #2 Clemson and then a few weeks later Alabama lost to Texas A&M, promoting Georgia to first overall. Georgia held that number one spot until they suffered a sound defeat at the hands of Alabama in the SEC championship game. So, why is Georgia favored -3 points in this game? It does seem odd at first glance. So, lets do a little digging.
Yes, Alabama has beat Georgia the last 7 times they have played. And it is true they just beat Georgia soundly in the SEC Championship game. But, Georgia is 5-4-1 ATS against Alabama in their last ten meetings. Also, lets take a look at how they handled same opponents:
Arkansas
Alabama 42, Arkansas 35
Georgia 37, Arkansas 0
Tennessee
Alabama 52, Tennessee 24
Georgia 41, Tennessee 17
Florida
Alabama 31, Florida 29
Georgia 34, Florida 7
As you can clearly see, Georgia holds the advantage in the “similar-opponent” handicapping method.
If you recall, the SEC Championship game had Georgia favored -6.5 and that spread was a fair number. Alabama simply came out and played better football and Georgia choked at the same time. It is in our opinion that the oddsmakers are thinking the SEC Championship game was a fluke and if played over again, or 3 out of 5 times, Georgia would win.
The betting public is seeing this number as a gift from the sportsbooks. That is evident in the fact that about 70% of the money has been put on Alabama plus the points.
So, because of a combination of the ATS record, similar opponent scores and against-the-public handicapping we like so much, we are going to take the Bulldogs in a “do-over”. This time the game will belong to the Bulldogs.
