2024 AFC East Preview – Odds – Sleeper Pick
James Willis | August 8, 2024
Will they make it five? The Buffalo Bills have won each of the last four AFC East Division titles and they are the favorite to capture another in 2024. This one will take some effort just like last season. Buffalo finished 11-6 as did Miami, but the Bills beat the Dolphins twice during the regular season to take the division crown.
The Dolphins are once again a strong contender for the division title, but it’s the New York Jets that are the most intriguing team in possibly the entire NFL. With a healthy Aaron Rodgers back at the helm of the offense, can the Jets finally make a move toward becoming a perennial playoff team?
That is the hope in New York, which finished 7-10 last season. Rodgers missed the entire season after injuring an Achilles tendon on the fourth play from scrimmage in Week 1. The offense struggled the rest of the season, but the defense was outstanding. Head coach Robert Saleh’s defense finished No. 2 against the pass (168.3 ypg) and No. 3 in total defense (292.3).
The 2024 AFC East will be the first without legendary head coach Bill Belichick since 2000. The Patriots dynasty has fallen by the wayside. After future Hall of Fame QB Tom Brady left the Patriots for Tampa Bay in 2020, New England 29-38, including just 12-22 the last two seasons. Former Patriot LB Jerod Mayo takes over as the new Patriots head coach. New England is the only team in the division given worse than +200 odds to win it. How will it all play out?
Who Will Win the AFC East in 2024?
That’s a great question. It’s a three-team race to win the AFC East this season. Four-time defending champ Buffalo should get some heat from both the Jets and Dolphins. Miami has made the postseason in each of the last two years, finishing second to Buffalo in the division race each time.
The Bills will have a different look in 2024. Gone is WR Stefon Diggs. Buffalo welcomes veteran Curtis Samuel and rookie Keon Coleman to the wide receiver room. Tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox give QB Josh Allen (4,306 yards passing, 29 TDs) plenty of weapons.
As good as Allen and the Buffalo offense is, it’s really the defense that sets the tone. Buffalo finished in the top 10 in total defense, passing defense, and scoring defense in 2023. Sean McDermott is a defensive-minded head coach and the Bills have built a solid unit during his tenure. That’s why they’ve won four straight division titles and it’s also why they are the +170 favorite to make it five in a row.
Top Contenders
The three-team race will include the Jets, another strong defensive team that will now have one of the all-time great NFL quarterbacks running the offense. Rodgers will have a number of weapons, including 2022 NFL Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson at wide receiver along with former Chargers WR Mike Williams. The Jets defense rivals Buffalo. New York gave up a few more points per game than the Bills, but the Jets were second against the run, third against the pass, and third in total defense in 2023.
The combination of defense and an Aaron Rodgers-led defense are why the Jets are second on the AFC East betting board at +180. Right behind the Jets are the Dolphins at +200. QB Tua Tagovailoa signed a four-year, $212.4 million contract extension at the end of July, putting him in the $50 million per year category.
Tagovailoa has all sorts of weapons on offense, including the speedy Tyreek Hill (1,799 receiving yards, 13 TDs), Jaylen Waddle (1,014, 4 TDs), and running backs Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane who combined for 1,812 yards and 26 touchdowns on the ground. Miami will need to improve on defense if they are going to unseat Buffalo at the top of the division.
AFC East in the Playoffs
Well, the New England Patriots will miss the playoffs for the third straight season in 2024. Somehow, the Patriots, coming off a 4-13 season last year, ended up with the most difficult schedule in 2024. Buffalo ranks just ahead of New England at No. 31.
The Jets have the 12th-easiest schedule in 2024 and Miami comes in at No. 17. Certainly, Buffalo, Miami, and the Jets will be worthy of a playoff spot. The division winner, of course, is in. The last two seasons, Miami made it as a wild card. Getting a second wild card will be difficult. The AFC North is also a tough division with Baltimore, Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh with not one, but two new quarterbacks (Russell Wilson and Justin Fields).
AFC East Sleeper
There isn’t really a sleeper in this AFC East race, but since the Jets have not been involved in the division title discussion for many years, we’ll call them a sleeper. This could be the best division, or at least the most competitive in the NFL this season. A healthy Aaron Rodgers makes the Jets a legitimate threat to win it.
The Jets defense is outstanding and will only get better with the additions of pass rusher Haason Reddick and DT Javon Kinlaw. Sauce Gardner emerged as the best cornerback in the NFL in just his second season. That New York was able to finish 7-10 last season with a mess at the quarterback position speaks volumes as to how good the defense was.
2024 AFC East Odds to Win Division
odds can be found and bet at BetUS.com (Rating A+)
- Buffalo Bills +170
- New York Jets +180
- Miami Dolphins +200
- New England Patriots +2500
NFL Division Previews – Odds – Sleeper Picks
