Brock Purdy Passing TD Over Under

Purdy has signed a five-year, $265 million contract extension. The deal includes $182.55 million in guaranteed money, with $100 million fully guaranteed at signing. This extension solidifies Purdy’s position as the 49ers’ franchise quarterback for the foreseeable future.

Purdy was the “Mr. Irrelevant” in the 2022 NFL draft. This fact makes his success in the NFL that much more intriguing. However, it has not been all flowers and sunshine. Yes, he did helm the team during their appearance in Super Bowl 58 and the Niners were able to take it down to the wire. The Chiefs were able to beat them in OT. It should be noted that Jimmy Garoppolo also led the Niners to a Super Bowl and were defeated by Mahomes and the Chiefs.

Last year was seen as a major setback year for Brock, one in which the 49ers failed to make the playoffs, and Purdy only threw for 20 TD’s in the regular season.

Purdy had a QB record of 5-0 in his rookie season followed by a 12-4 record in his sophomore stint (Super Bowl year). Last year he only managed to garner a 6-9 record as the starting signal caller.

His TD stat line looks like this:

2022: 13 TD’s (5 games started)
2023: 31 TD’s (16 games started)
2024: 20 TD’s (15 games started)

BetUS.com sportsbook is currently listing his TD over/under at 23.5 TD’s for the 2025 season. The number isn’t larger because of last season’s performance. Also, WR Deebo Samuels is gone to free agency.

Many comments on social media seem to suggest the general betting public thinks the number is low as well with people writing:

“Real prop should be 28.5”

and

“This is the best season to bet on the over”

and

“Easiest over ever”

Yes, it is tempting to take the over on this prop but you saw what Purdy did last season. Now he is without Deebo. There is always the chance he will miss time due to injury as well.

If Purdy and the Niners have an impressive pre-season I could see the number creeping up a little to maybe 24.5