2025 Early Season College Football Betting Tips

This weekend, college football’s Week 0 will kick off the 2025 season. There are only five games on the schedule, but all five offer plenty of betting opportunities for the college football bettor. 

There is an issue, though, because teams and their early season performance are unpredictable. That makes college football betting in the early season difficult. There are a few key strategies and things to consider that can help bettors make better choices early in the 2025 college football season.

Rosters & Stability

Pay attention to coaching turnover and team rosters. With the transfer portal era, there is a lot of player turnover in college football from year to year. Teams that are able to keep key players in place have a great chance of success. For example, Clemson returns eight starters on offense and six on defense coming off a 10-4 season in which they played in the College Football Playoff.

They also return long-time head coach Dabo Swinney and offensive coordinator Garrett Riley. The offense should be special and the Tigers are in just about everyone’s preseason Top 5. Teams with consistent coaching situations and high returning production are teams you can focus on early in the season. Teams with a lot of new players and/or coaches may be less reliable.

Analyze Coaching Changes

A team’s performance can be significantly impacted by new coaches, whether it’s a new head coach or new offensive or defensive coordinator. You have to examine the coach and philosophy as well as his performance before going ahead to make any betting decisions.

A scheme change from one coach to another could have a positive or negative impact. Take Ken Niumatalolo at San Jose State last year. Niumatalolo was the former Navy head coach who ran the triple option offense in Annapolis. He hired offensive coordinator Craig Stutzman and the Spartans surprised everyone with an offense that led the nation in pass attempts per game (43.0). That was not typical of a Niumatalolo offense. The bottom line is to do your homework on a new coaching situation.

Be Wary of Last Season’s Data

Today’s transfer portal era almost makes the previous season’s data irrelevant. It still has some use, but don’t get too caught up in using numbers from the previous season. Those numbers may not be a great predictor of performance this season. This is especially true of teams with a high rate of roster turnover. 

Take a team like Iowa State, which finished 11-3 last season. They set a school record for wins, but QB Rocco Becht will have an entirely new receiving corps. Two of his receivers from last year are in the NFL and the new crew is made up entirely of transfers. Don’t expect the same results as last season, especially early in 2025.

Schedule Strength

One of the biggest determinants in betting college football season win totals is schedule strength. This is especially true when examining the non-conference portion of a schedule. Penn State will play Nevada (3-10 last year), FIU, and FCS Villanova to open the 2025 season. That should be an easy three wins for the Nittany Lions, which puts them closer to their season win total.

Then, examine the conference schedule. With realignment, there are now conferences, like the Big Ten, with 18 teams. Teams won’t play every other team in their conference. Oregon, the Big Ten champion last year, plays at Penn State on Sept. 27, but the Ducks do not play Ohio State, Michigan, or Illinois. 

Use Analytics But in Context

Nowadays, there is just a massive amount of data available. Expected Points Added, or EPA, is all the rage as is Success Rate (both offensive and defensive). These metrics can be helpful but take context into account.

Penn State’s Rush Success Rate may be outstanding after Week 3 this season. Its overall Defensive Success Rate will likely look promising as well. Don’t forget, though, that those numbers will be recorded against the preseason No. 109 and No. 129 teams plus an FCS team. 

Line Movement, Matchups, Sharp Numbers

If you want to bet like a sharp, you have to think like one. Remember that the general betting public will ride with popular teams and favorites. They also love Overs when betting any form of game total or prop. 

Watch for line movement. For example, when the Week 0 college football betting lines were released, Stanford was a slight favorite over Hawaii. That line has shifted and now the Rainbow Warriors, who will play at home this Saturday, are a 2- to 2.5-point favorite at top sportsbooks. Spot these line changes and determine why the line moved. 

Finally, take into account the matchup. A successful Air Raid team against a bottom 10 pass defense could be a recipe for many things – helpful in choosing a side, the game Over, a Team Total Over, and more. Examine matchups and look for advantages/disadvantages that you can exploit.

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