Two NFL Spots I’m Looking at This Week

Late in the NFL season, I try to simplify things as much as possible. Once playoff talk starts taking over, betting conversations usually go sideways. Teams don’t suddenly stop trying because of standings, and oddsmakers don’t move lines based on motivation stories.

What matters more is timing. Early in the week, some numbers are still reacting instead of settled.

The first game that stood out to me is the Rams (over/under 44) going to Seattle on Thursday night.

That game already looks like it’s going to be played in rough conditions. Rain is in the forecast, wind looks steady, and that usually changes how teams call games. You see fewer deep shots, fewer clean passing windows, and a lot more plays designed just to avoid mistakes.

Neither the Rams nor the Seahawks are teams that force tempo when things get sloppy. The Rams are fine playing slower if it keeps them moving the chains. Seattle has shown plenty of times they’ll pull things back when the weather gets in the way, especially on a short week.

In games like that, it doesn’t take much for scoring to drop. A drive or two stalls, a red-zone trip turns into a field goal, and suddenly the total is in trouble. The number has already moved a bit, which makes sense, but it hasn’t dropped far enough yet. Once totals like this move past the mid-40s, the value usually disappears.

This feels like one of those Thursday games where nothing comes easy.

The other game I keep coming back to is the Chargers heading to Dallas (-2).

Dallas looks fine when everything goes right up front. When it doesn’t, the defense starts giving ground. That’s been true for a while now. If they aren’t controlling the line, they end up reacting instead of dictating.

That’s not ideal against the Chargers. Los Angeles doesn’t need to be perfect on offense. They just need balance. If they can run the ball enough to stay out of obvious passing downs, Justin Herbert doesn’t have to force anything. The offense stays patient, and drives don’t fall apart.

What I notice with the Chargers is how often they make defenses guess. They’ll show one look, run something else, then flip it in the next series. That puts pressure on defenders to make decisions quickly, especially if the front line isn’t winning.

Herbert moving around helps too. Not in a flashy way, just enough to avoid bad plays. That keeps the game close, which is really all that matters here.

I’m not saying the Chargers are clearly better. I’m saying the number is small, and this matchup doesn’t feel like one where Dallas separates itself easily.

At this point in the season, that’s usually enough for me.