CFB Playoffs Early Action Report – Look Ahead Lines

And then there were four. To no one’s surprise the undefeated and #1 ranked Indiana Hoosiers are in the semi-finals and will face off against the Oregon Ducks, a team they beat in the regular season. The spread was issued at Indiana -4 and has remained steady despite lopsided action on the Hoosiers.

In the other brackets, the Miami Hurricanes, who limped into the playoffs, have been impressive. They defeated a heavily favored Ohio State Buckeye team last week to advance. They are now favored by -3.5 points over Ole Miss according to SBAOdds.com. The Rebels of Ole Miss have played beyond expectations as well.

Thursday January 8, 2026 at 7:30 EST

Location: State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona

Miami -3.5 (60% of tix/65% of $)
Ole Miss +3.5 (40% of tix/35% of $)
Sharp Action Reported on Miami

Friday January 9, 2026 at 7:30pm EST

Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia

Oregon +4 (30% of tix/20% of $)
Indiana -4 (70% of tix/80% of $)
No Sharp Action Reported

Things to Consider

Regarding Miami’s QB Carson Beck, he has a tendency to play very well for stretches then have “melt-down games” where he throws multiple interceptions. It’s the reason he was drummed out of Georgia. I would bet that he will have one of these games either against Ole Miss or in the championship game.

Against USF Carson Beck had 2 interceptions. He had 4 interceptions against Louisville, which was one of Miami’s two losses this season. He also had two picks against SMU, the other game they lost. He is due for a meltdown. If the Hurricanes make it to the championship game, it would probably be a wise wager to go against Beck and his Hurricanes.

Indiana beat Oregon back on October 11th in Oregon. There is no reason to believe that Oregon is somehow much better or Indiana is worse than 3 months ago. My lean on this game is to take Indiana. The line should probably be something like Indiana -6 points. I wouldn’t be surprised if it inches closer to that number as gametime approaches.

NCAA Championship Look Ahead Lines

These lines are purely speculative and are based on the current lines for the semi-finals

Miami +6
Indiana -6

Ole Miss +8.5
Indiana -8.5

Miami +3
Oregon -3

Ole Miss +6
Oregon -6

CFB Championship Winner

at BetOnline.ag

• Indiana +125
• Miami Florida +275
• Oregon +300
• Ole Miss +575

The reason Miami is higher on the futures odds than Oregon is because they are favorites in the semi-finals, not because they are actually better than Oregon. The Ducks have to get through the #1 team in the nation just to make it to the game. If they are able to do this, they will then become favorites to win it all.