My Final Four Picks and the One Team I’d Bet to Win It All

Every year, we pretend March is wide open. And every year, when we get to the second weekend, it usually isn’t. The teams with depth, guards, and experience start separating.

Right now, I’m staring at the possibilities as conference tournaments approach, and I see four teams that stand out..

Michigan at +350 is the obvious place to begin. I don’t love laying short futures numbers in college basketball, but I get why they’re there. The Wolverines are 25–1, have beaten ranked teams, and don’t look rattled late in close, pressure-packed games. What I like most is that they don’t depend on one guy to win it for them. Different players can win games. That usually is a big factor in the Big Dance.

If I had to choose one team to win the national title today, it would be Michigan. At +350, they check the most boxes.

Houston at +800 at sportsbooks is the team I don’t want to bet against in a tight bracket. They defend every possession as if the outcome depended on it, and that style fits well in March. Games slow down. Offenses get tight. Shot clocks run down. Houston is comfortable living that way. I could easily see them reaching the Final Four.

Duke at +700 is interesting because their ceiling might be as high as anyone’s. They’ve played much better recently and have guards who can create late in games. That’s not something every contender has. When tournament games turn into isolation basketball with two minutes left, shot-making wins. Duke has that.

Arizona at +550 feels like the swing team. They can score in transition, they have depth, and they aren’t reliant on one look offensively. The Wildcats’ recent tournament history isn’t great, but this roster feels stronger than some of the previous versions that fell short. At +550, they’re priced like a real contender, and they probably are.

If I’m looking a little further down the board, Kansas at +2500 catches my eye. Health is everything with them. If their key pieces are available or close to 100%, +2500 feels really long. You don’t need to dominate six games. You just need to be better for 40 minutes at a time.

So if I had to call my Final Four right now, I’d say Michigan, Houston, Duke, and Arizona. That’s not a wild-card bracket. It’s a chalk-heavy one. But chalk wins more often than we admit.

As for cutting down the nets? I keep turning to Michigan. They rebound well enough, defend well enough, and don’t give games away. In a tournament built on single elimination, avoiding mistakes is almost as important as making big shots.

March will still give us plenty of chaos. It always does. But if I’m putting real money behind a ticket today, Michigan at +350 is the one I’m comfortable with holding.