Does Luka Doncic Actually Have a Shot at MVP This Season?

Alright, so let’s talk this out for a second, because Luka’s case is one of those where the numbers say one thing, but the award might still go another way.

The guy is putting up 33.7 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 8.2 assists per game. That’s not normal. That’s basically your entire offense running through one player every night, and defenses still can’t really slow him down. He’s leading the league in scoring, and it’s not like he’s just hunting shots either; he’s still setting everyone else up.

Then you look at what he just did in March, and it gets even tougher to ignore. He averaged 37.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, 7.4 assists, and 2.3 steals during that stretch, and the Lakers went 14-2. That’s not just stat-padding, that’s winning, and winning big. They went from kind of floating in the standings to suddenly looking like a real threat in the West.

So yeah, when JJ Redick comes out and says if they keep this up, Luka should be MVP, I get it. I don’t think that’s crazy at all. But here’s where it gets tricky.

You’ve got Shai in Oklahoma City sitting on the best record in the league. That’s always going to matter, whether people want it to or not. Voters love that. Best player on the best team, it’s the easiest argument in the world.

Then Jokic is still Jokic. Even missing time, everyone knows what he’s capable of, and he’s been right there in the race again. And Wembanyama? That one’s different, because it’s not just offense. He’s affecting games on defense in a way Luka just doesn’t.

And that’s where Luka loses some supporters.

He’s been better defensively this year, but nobody’s confusing him with a lockdown guy. When the race is tight, those little things start to matter more than they probably should.

The other thing is timing over the full season. Luka has been great all year, but the Lakers haven’t looked like this all year. This run came late. It’s impressive, but sometimes voters have already made up their minds by now.

So, if we’re just being honest, should he win it?

Yes, in my opinion. Leading the league in scoring on a 50-win team, while also being in the top three in assists, doesn’t happen often. Most years, that’s either winning MVP or finishing second without much debate.

But will he actually win? No, I still think he comes up just short.

It feels like Shai has too much going for him with the record, and that’s usually what decides it. Luka’s push made it close, way closer than it looked a few weeks ago, but I’m not sure there’s enough time left to change enough minds.

That said, if the Lakers keep rolling and he keeps putting up these kinds of games, it’s going to get uncomfortable for voters. Because at some point, you can’t just ignore what he’s doing.

And honestly, that’s where this thing gets interesting — not just whether Luka wins it, but how hard he makes it for them not to pick him this time.

NBA MVP Betting Odds as of April 1st, 2026

Victor Wembanyama +250

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +300

Luka Doncic +1500