Top 5 Quarterbacks in the 2026 NFL Draft – And Who I Like

We already know how this is probably going to start.

Fernando Mendoza is going first. That part isn’t really up for debate at this point. The bigger question, and it’s the one that matters more long-term, is whether he actually ends up being the best quarterback from this class. Because once you move past the top spot, this group starts to feel a lot less certain and a lot more about projection.

Starting at the top, Fernando Mendoza, Indiana, 6-3, QB, did everything you’d expect from a No. 1 pick. Over 3,500 passing yards, 41 touchdowns, and a national title. It’s hard to find much to pick apart there. What stands out more than the numbers, though, is how steady he looks when things aren’t perfect. He doesn’t rush, doesn’t look panicked, and keeps plays alive without forcing anything. The only real question teams will bring up is how quickly it all came together. It was one big jump in one season. That won’t scare everyone off, but it will come up in conversations.

After him, things get a little less clear. Ty Simpson, Alabama, 6-2, QB has the production, 3,567 passing yards and 28 touchdowns, but it doesn’t always feel as complete when you watch him game to game. There are moments where he looks in full control, then stretches where it just kind of levels off. Some of that ties back to experience. One year as a starter isn’t much, and you can see it. A team that gives him time probably gets a different version of him than one that expects him to step in right away.

Then you get to one of the more interesting evaluations in the class. Cole Payton, North Dakota State, 6-3, QB, isn’t polished, but that’s not really why teams will be drawn to him. He can move, extend plays, and throw on the run, which opens up a lot of possibilities. The level of competition always comes up with players from that program, and that’s fair, but it usually comes down to whether teams believe the tools will translate to the NFL. With Payton, that’s the bet you’re making.

A different kind of evaluation comes with Garrett Nussmeier, LSU, 6-2, QB. The arm talent is obvious right away. He can make throws that a lot of quarterbacks simply won’t attempt. That alone keeps him in the conversation. The concern is everything else around it. He’s not very mobile, takes sacks, and those issues tend to show up consistently over time. Quarterbacks built like that don’t always work out in the NFL, and that’s a big reason he’s sitting here instead of higher.

Then there’s Drew Allar, Penn State, 6-5, QB, who looks the part as soon as you see him. Big frame, strong arm, and more mobility than people expected. The problem is consistency. You’ll see a few drives where everything clicks, and then it disappears for a stretch. That’s what makes him harder to evaluate. There’s clearly something there, but it hasn’t shown up the same way every week.

Final Thoughts

This class really comes down to how much risk a team is willing to take.

Mendoza is the safest pick at the top, and that’s why he’s going first. After that, it gets murky pretty quickly. Teams are going to be betting on development, traits, and situation more than anything else. And honestly, it wouldn’t be surprising if the second or third quarterback taken ends up having the better career. That’s usually how classes like this play out. There’s a clear name at the top, but everything behind it is still wide open.

2026 NFL Draft Odds

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1st Player to be Drafted

The is OFF, probably because it is widely assumed that QB Mendoza will be drafted here.

2nd Player Drafted

• David Bailey -170
• Arvell Reese +105
• Rueben Bain Jr. +4000
• Sonny Styles +4000
• Ty Simpson +6500
• Caleb Downs +8000

3rd Player to be Drafted

• Arvell Reese +140
• David Bailey +275
• Francis Mauigoa +400
• Jeremiyah Love +1000
• Rueben Bain Jr +1200
• Sonny Styles +1400