Is Patrick Mahomes Done?
James Willis | April 21, 2026
The year was 2018. Patrick Mahomes got the green light to be Kansas City’s QB1 after sitting the bench his rookie year. The young upstart QB from Texas Tech who walked and talked a little funny was about to take over the helm for the storied franchise. I don’t think anyone could have predicted what came next.
Mahomes put up massive numbers to lead the league in touchdowns and tied Tom Brady for 2nd most TD’s in a single season in NFL history. He threw for 5,000+ yards and led the Chiefs to a 12-4 record. Some people were thinking “this could be a ‘flash in the pan’. let’s see him do it again”. Well, he never put up gaudy numbers like that again, but he did put up great numbers and would go on to lead his team to three Super Bowl victories (2020,2023,2024).
The last few years haven’t been so kind. Mahomes has faced a series of injuries, and his numbers have been on the steady decline the last four years:
| Season | Yards | TD/INT |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3,587 | 22/11 |
| 2024 | 3,928 | 26/11 |
| 2023 | 4,183 | 27/14 |
| 2022 | 5,250 | 41/12 |
The decline is noticeable to say the least and is taking a similar path to other great QB’s who had explosive starts but whose careers dwindled because of age and injury.
After having won NFL MVP in 2020 and 2022, Mahomes is now fifth place on the list of Odds to Win 2026-2027 NFL MVP at SportsBetting.ag
Josh Allen +650
Lamar Jackson +800
Joe Burrow +900
Drake Maye +950
Patrick Mahomes +1000
Justin Herbert +1000
Not So Fast
Patrick Mahomes is currently recovering from a torn ACL and LCL in his left knee and is targeting a return for Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season.
As of April 2026, he is reporting for the start of the Kansas City Chiefs’ voluntary offseason program. While his status is officially categorized as Healthy by some indicators, he is strictly limited to meetings, weightlifting, and rehabilitation during this phase of the program.
The Chiefs organization fully expects Mahomes to be back to his old self come September. They signed this year’s Super Bowl MVP RB Kenneth Walker III to bolster the running game and take some of the pressure off Mahomes.
As far as Super Bowl LXI (61) futures odds go, the Chiefs are tied for the fifth spot with the Ravens, behind Buffalo:
Los Angeles Rams +750
Seattle Seahawks +950
Buffalo Bills +1100
Baltimore Ravens +1200
Kansas City Chiefs +1200
San Francisco 49ers +1400
— Odds from SportsBetting.ag (sign up now and get a 50% bonus – up to $250)
So, is Mahomes’ career winding down? Possibly. His stats seem to reflect that he is not the same QB he was just several years ago. But he is still better than 80% of other starting QB’s in the league and with a balanced offensive attack could easily make another appearance in the big game.
However, if injuries and the downward trends continue, one could easily deduce that Mahomes will be a shell of himself in just a couple years. Don’t be surprised if Kansas City starts drafting QB’s soon to have a guy ready to step in and possibly take over for him.
