What could change in 2026 for the legal sports betting market in the US

Sports betting is legal in 38 states and Washington, D.C. Just ten years ago, that number seemed like fantasy, but today it has become a new baseline for gauging further growth in the industry. The key question this year is: which states will be next in line for legalization, and what exactly determines the pace of their progress.

How the Supreme Court’s 2018 decision sparked a wave of legalization

In 2018, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down PASPA (the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act), a federal law that effectively banned sports betting outside Nevada. After that decision, each state gained the right to set its own rules. In less than eight years, the number of jurisdictions with legal sports betting grew from just a handful to 38 states plus Washington, D.C.

Why some states are still holding out

The reasons for delays directly affect the timing and realism of passing laws. All “holdout” states fall into one of four categories, and each comes with its own reasons for delay.

• Constitutional hurdles. Expanding gambling requires either a voter referendum or a supermajority in the state legislature. The most illustrative example is Texas, where a constitutional amendment requires a two-thirds vote in both chambers.
• Native American tribes’ position and tribal compacts. Existing agreements with tribes that run casino gaming create political and legal constraints on any new forms of gambling. Minnesota, where eleven federally recognized tribes control all casino gaming, is a classic case.
• A conservative legislative environment. Political will is absent regardless of polling: surveys may show public support, but lawmakers are not ready to act. Alabama clearly illustrates this scenario.
• Recent failed efforts. Bills “died” in committee or on the floor vote over the last one or two sessions, and supporters are regrouping. California, after the failed 2022 ballot measure, remains in exactly this situation.

The closest candidates for legalization and launch: key decision points in 2026

Among the remaining states, there is a group where either a bill is close to passage or a launch depends on regulatory action. The types of obstacles vary significantly.

Georgia: the most progress in a single legislative session

HB 380 has reached the stage of active debate in the state legislature, which had not happened before. The proposed model envisions mobile sports betting regulated by the Georgia Lottery Corporation, with competitive licensing and a tax rate above 20% of GGR (gross gaming revenue). The decisive factor remains the position of Governor Brian Kemp, who has not taken a position for or against it yet. If he signs it, the law will take effect. Silence or opposition could mean another delay.

A huge market behind a high constitutional barrier in Texas

Unlike Georgia, where the distance to the finish line is measured by a single decision, in Texas the scale of the potential market is inversely proportional to the chances of near-term legalization. SJR 17 is being reviewed in interim committees, but the required two-thirds votes for a constitutional amendment are still not there.

Lobbying has intensified: Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has publicly backed legalization, and economic studies project multi-billion-dollar handle and hundreds of millions of dollars in tax revenue annually. Nevertheless, a realistic timeline is 2027 or 2028 via a ballot initiative. Hearings in 2026 will show whether the votes are there.

In Minnesota, everything hinges on tribal terms

This isn’t about an outright ban, but about aligning a model between tribes and commercial participants. An updated version of SF 1949 proposes a hybrid system: mobile access via tribal apps plus limited options for commercial operators. Negotiations over preferences and exclusivity have been dragging on for three years. The chances of passage in 2026 or 2027 are moderate; however, the risk remains that a compromise may not resolve the dispute, only shift it.

Voters have decided; now it’s up to the rulemaking in Missouri

Missouri’s trajectory is fundamentally different: legalization was already approved by referendum in November 2024. The Missouri Gaming Commission is developing the regulatory framework. Operator licensing is expected by mid-2026, and mobile apps are planned to launch shortly after, roughly by the fall college football season.

How the outlook for 2026 was assessed

The forecast for each state is based on a combination of the current stage of the bill or regulatory process and the nature of the key obstacle that could speed things up or stop progress entirely.

A tracker of state bills and launch timelines

Among the candidates for the nearest launch, four states stand out.

• Georgia. Active debate in the chamber on HB 380. Key obstacle: the governor’s position. Outlook: strong; legalization is possible in 2026.
• Missouri. Regulatory rulemaking based on the 2024 ballot initiative. Key obstacle: licensing timelines. Launch is expected in mid-2026.
• Minnesota. Negotiation phase on SF 1949. Key obstacle: tribal compact terms. Moderate chances for 2026 or 2027.
• Texas. Committee review, SJR 17. Key obstacle: the threshold for a constitutional amendment. Outlook: weak; 2027 or 2028 is more realistic.

In the longer term, Alabama, South Carolina, Idaho (no active bills, a conservative environment, or constitutional hurdles), Hawaii (a study committee reviewing HB 2412, deep cultural opposition), Oklahoma (stalled HB 3008, tribal compacts on exclusivity), Alaska (in prefiling, logistical and legislative hurdles), and California (after the 2022 failure there is no active initiative, and the conflict between tribes and commercial operators remains unresolved) remain.

Where the industry is headed against the backdrop of a near-final landscape

The overall picture of legal betting will change only slightly over the next year. The most likely additions to the list by January 1, 2027 are Georgia and Missouri. All other potential expansions are several years away.

The situation with other forms of gambling

With online casinos, the situation is far more complicated. Real-money online casino gaming is legal in only 7 states. At the same time, residents of other states still place bets on gaming platforms—they use offshore sites with international licenses to do so.

The situation in the US resembles that in neighboring Canada, where a fully regulated online casino market exists in Ontario. At the same time, in many provinces residents can play on foreign sites; players are not prohibited from doing so. We verified the data through online searches and click here to find out which platforms offer no-deposit bonuses to players from Canada and are generally accessible in the country. A brief analysis showed that the list of these platforms is largely identical to those operating in the US. At the same time, in both Canada and the United States, most platforms are part of the “gray” market.

More and more attention is shifting to states where betting is already legal. There, debates are gaining momentum about tax rates, advertising restrictions, and responsible gambling standards. Regulators are revisiting the terms under which operators do business, and this may prove no less significant than legalization itself.

A separate vector is the growing interest in regulating prediction markets (prediction markets). This trend confirms that the industry has moved from the expansion “gold rush” to a phase of sustained rulemaking, where the rules matter more than adding new states to the map.