2026 Kentucky Derby Odds and Kentucky Derby Picks

Published 4/30/26 — Updated 5/2/25

It’s already Derby time. Spring has flown by and it’s already time for the first (and most popular) leg in the Triple Crown. Saturday at 6:56pm ET the gates will open in what some call the fastest two minutes in sport.

This year features a large pool of horses. There will be 20 equines in all, competing for the $3.1 million prize. The total purse for the event is estimated to be around $5M.

Below you will find the horse listed with their jockey as well as betting odds. These odds are accurate as of time of publishing but can change before the event begins.

2026 Kentuck Derby Odds

1 – Renegade (I Ortiz Jr.) +400

6 – Commandment (L Saez) +600

12 – Chief Wallabee (J Alvarado) +800

18 – Further Ado (J Velazquez) +600

9 – The Puma (J Castellano) +800 Scratch

15 -Emerging Market (F Prat) +1500

8 – So Happy (M Smith) +1500

7 – Danon Bourbon (A Nishimura) +2000

14 – Potente (J Hernandez) +2000

10 – Wonder (Dean R Sakai) +3000

3 – Intrepido (H Berrios) +5000

11 – Incredibolt (J Torres) +2000

4 – Litmus Test (M Garcia) +5000

17 – Six Speed (B Hernandez Jr.) +5000

19 – Golden Tempo (J Ortiz) +3000

16 – Pavlovian (E Maldonado) +3000

2 – Albus (M Franco) +3000

21 – Great White (A Achard) +5000

22 – Ocelli (J Ramos) +5000

These odds are from BetOnline.ag where you can get a 50% deposit bonus right now.

Prize Money Breakdown (2026):
1st Place: $3.1 million
2nd Place: $1 million
3rd Place: $500,000
4th Place: $250,000
5th Place: $150,000

The winning jockey takes home about $300,000. After he pays agents, valets and taxes on this money he will only earn about $130K.

2026 Kentucky Derby Picks

Top Trifecta: Commandment – The Puma – Chief Wallabee (in that order, or boxed for safety)

Why this combination?

Commandment (Brad Cox trainee, around 6-1) stands out as a top-tier contender with strong recent form, including solid performances in key preps. Cox has multiple live horses in the race and a proven track record with Derby contenders. Many experts rank him highly for his tactical speed and ability to handle the 1¼-mile distance.

The Puma (around 8-1) is a horse several sharp handicappers are high on. He’s been ultra-consistent (top-3 finishes in all his starts), offers good value at a square price, and has the closing kick that can play well in a big field with a contested pace. Multiple sources flag him as a dangerous exotic player who could outperform his odds. Now a Scratch

Chief Wallabee (around 8-1) brings strong Florida Derby connections/form and fits the profile of a horse that can stalk and finish. He’s frequently mentioned in top-10 lists and expert picks as a reliable piece for the board, especially with the right trip.

Visit KentuckyDerby.com for more information about the track and race history

Longshot Stunner Pick

Picking longshots to win first place is a sure way to burn some cash. But these races only come around a few times per year. With that in mind, here is our longshot pick for the 2026 Kentucky Derby.

Pavlovian +3000 (was +5000 at time of publication) (bet this pick now at BetOnline.ag)

Here’s Why:

1. Battle-Tested Experience in a Field Full of Question Marks

Pavlovian has 10 career starts — the most of any horse in the 2026 Derby field. Modern Derby horses often arrive relatively lightly raced. This gray/roan colt is genuinely “old school” battle-hardened: he’s shipped to multiple tracks, faced different pace scenarios, and shown he can grind out finishes. Trainer Doug O’Neill has noted how much the horse has matured, and he handled Derby-week crowds and noise without turning a hair. In a chaotic 20-horse field with a big crowd and the unique Churchill Downs surface, that kind of seasoning and professionalism is a real edge.

2. Clear Form Cycle + Tactical Versatility

He’s on a sharp upward trajectory: Won the Sunland Park Derby (Feb 2026) in a gritty nose duel after adding blinkers and new jockey Edwin Maldonado. Followed with a head second in the Louisiana Derby (G2) at 1 3/16 miles, showing he can stalk or press and fight all the way to the wire.

His Beyer figures have climbed steadily (recently up to 90). He has tactical speed — he can break cleanly, sit just off the pace or make his own trip from post 16 (which O’Neill actually likes, as it may help him avoid the worst early traffic). In a Derby that could feature a hot pace or a closer-biased setup, a horse who can stay involved without overexerting early has a puncher’s chance.

3. The O’Neill/Reddam Factor

Doug O’Neill and owner J. Paul Reddam are 2-for-2 in the Kentucky Derby together (I’ll Have Another in 2012 and Nyquist in 2016). O’Neill knows how to peak a horse for this exact race and has a history of getting the most out of longshots or overlooked colts on Derby Day. Pavlovian is a Reddam homebred, so the connections are deeply invested and familiar with the horse from day one. That experience at the highest-level matters when everything else is equal.