A Few MLB Betting Trends Through Mid-May: Best Over Teams, Best Under Teams, and Updated Win Projections

We’re far enough into the MLB season now where over/under betting trends are becoming more reliable. April baseball can get unpredictable because rotations are still settling in and weather impacts scoring across different parks, but by the middle of May, certain teams are clearly developing patterns. Some clubs keep finding themselves in games that fly past the total, while others continue landing in lower-scoring matchups almost every night.

The Houston Astros have been one of the strongest over teams in baseball so far with a 26-13-1 over record entering mid-May. A lot of that comes from pure production at the plate. Houston entered the week among the better offensive teams in baseball in runs scored, and games involving the Astros have consistently produced offense deep into the later innings. Even totals set at 8.5 or 9 runs have struggled to hold up against this lineup.

Cincinnati has followed a similar path. The Reds entered mid-May at 24-15-1 toward the over, and their home games have been especially difficult for sportsbooks to price correctly. Great American Ball Park remains one of the more hitter-friendly parks in baseball, and Cincinnati entered May among the National League leaders in home runs and stolen bases. That combination tends to create quick scoring swings once games open up.

The Chicago Cubs round out the top over teams through the first six weeks of the season. Chicago’s offense has consistently produced baserunners, and the Cubs entered mid-May carrying one of the stronger team batting averages in the National League. Their games have also produced several higher-scoring finishes against divisional opponents, which pushed totals upward consistently during April and early May.

On the under side, the Los Angeles Dodgers continue to surprise bettors. Even with one of the strongest lineups in baseball, Dodgers games have still leaned under because sportsbooks regularly post inflated totals involving Los Angeles. Totals of 9.5 and 10 runs have become common in Dodgers games, and that leaves very little room for error. A game ending 6-3 still cashes an under ticket in several of those situations.

San Francisco has also been reliable for under bettors early in the season. Giants games have consistently stayed lower scoring because the offense has struggled to keep pace with some of the stronger lineups across the National League. Oracle Park also continues playing as one of the tougher parks for hitters, especially during night games.

Cleveland belongs in the under conversation as well. Guardians games have regularly stayed lower scoring thanks to strong starting pitching performances and lower offensive production compared to several other American League contenders. Cleveland entered mid-May averaging fewer runs per game than teams like Houston, Chicago, and New York, which naturally keeps totals lower overall.

The futures market has shifted a little as these trends continue developing.

The Dodgers still hold the highest projected win total in baseball at 102.5 wins and remain the only team currently projected above the 100-win mark. The Yankees and Mets both sit at 90.5 projected wins entering the middle of May, with the Yankees gaining ground after a strong recent stretch.

Seattle remains at 89.5 projected wins largely because of its pitching staff. Even when scoring drops, the Mariners continue finding ways to win close games. Philadelphia also sits at 89.5, although injuries in the rotation have created slightly more uncertainty than earlier in the season.

The Cubs have climbed all the way to 88.5 projected wins after opening the year lower than several National League contenders. Their fast start changed expectations quickly. Toronto also remains at 88.5 despite several lower-scoring games because the Blue Jays continue winning consistently in tight situations.

Atlanta currently sits at 87.5 projected wins and still carries strong World Series expectations because of overall roster depth. Boston matches that same projection despite an uneven start, while Baltimore rounds out the top group at 85.5 thanks to strong run differential numbers and consistent production at the plate.