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MNF Rams vs Chiefs Inside the Numbers

November 19, 2018
MNF preview Rams

Tonight is one of the more anticipated games in recent weeks. Two of the top four teams play each other on Monday Night in primetime. The Kansas City Chiefs visit the LA Rams. In this article, we will take a brief dive into the numbers and see what jumps out at us. The Rams are -3 favorites as of press time and the total is 63 points.

Both teams are 9-1 straight up. The Chiefs have a much better record against the spread however. This is because the Rams were expected to be one of the best teams in the NFL since the preseason. The Chiefs had a bunch of question marks mainly because their new QB was really an unproven variable. In fact, the Chiefs were not even  the conversation and they were not in the top ten odds to win it all either. The Chiefs are 8-2 ATS ad the Rams are 4-5-1.

On offense the Rams score 33.50 PPG. They allow 23.10 PPG. The Chiefs score 35.30 PPG and allow 24 PPG. Theses numbers are really just about even on both sides of the ball.

The Rams are much better on the ground. They average 144 rushing yards per game behind their workhorse Todd Gurley. They pass for 233 yards per game. The Chiefs are at 289 passing per game and 121.70 rushing YPG. Again the total yards much up very evenly.

Both teams are just about even in turnover differential as well. They average just under -1 turnover per game each.

Head to head in years past the Cheifs have owned the Rams to the tune of 6-0 straight up and against the spread. But that doesn’t have a whole lot to do with these teams in the year 2018.

Here are some other trends of interest:

  • Kansas City is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games
  • Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
  • LA Rams are 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games
  • LA Rams are 9-1 SU in its last 10 games

These trends suggest that the logical plays would be KC plus the points (especially if you get +3.5 or more) or the Rams moneyline to win straight up. The game was essentially a PICK when it was published last week. That was mainly because it was scheduled to take place in Mexico City, a neutral site. It has since been moved to LA because of terrible field conditions in Mexico.

I am personally leaning toward Rams moneyline (-150). You can bet this game at one of several top ranked sportsbooks found here.

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