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Six Football Myths and Money Management

August 16, 2019
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In wagering, the many must lose in order that the few may win.                                                                                                                                                            – George Bernard Shaw (Is this you?)

The Myths 

1. Teams win more after a bye week:
This is true, but they don’t cover more against the spread.

2. Converting off of “The Revenge Factor”:

This is already built into the line, if it means anything at all.

3. Assuming similar outcomes from play between common opponents:

If team(a) beats team(b) and team(b) beats team(c), shouldn’t team(a) beat team(c)?

Of course not, and this seems obvious, but many handicappers and those posting on forums incorporate this methodology. 

4. Getting caught up with personal winning streaks:

Big losers sometimes get lucky, and those who’ve been successful will have days they would rather forget.

I’ve met so many gamblers who’ve gotten lucky on occasion, and convinced themselves that they’ve now become the new  handicapping panacea of the pari-mutuel industry. 
Then they get on public transportation to go home.

5. Getting caught up with personal losing streaks:
Don’t let a few losses change your wagering philosophy.
When we’re not winning, we can lose perspective.

There are a few tricks to help keep you grounded when your winning percentage drops.
a) Shut it down for a day or two.
Your life won’t change if you don’t wager for a few hours.
b) Envision your bankroll. 
It didn’t get this large because you were incompetent. 
c) Most importantly, don’t get all consumed.
Make time for your family and friends.

6. Wagering on the only televised game.

Some games just aren’t playable, but you can find a line on almost any contest.
You get to choose the ones with perceived value.
If you have no knowledge of a venue, or don’t see any viable angles, stay away.

John Rothschild - sports handicapperContributed by John Rothschild
(Recent articles at SI, ESPN, Bloomberg News, New York Sports Scene, & USRacing)
Author of Best Selling:
Still Time to Order for the Holidays.

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