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A Week 1 NFL Betting Strategy

September 2, 2019
week 1 NFL betting strategy

Betting on week 1 of NFL action can be a challenge for various reasons.

  • Most of the teams have had roster changes in the offseason.
  • The teams you will see on Sunday will barely resemble the teams you watched in the pre-season.

Many sports bettors don’t take real time and effort to study the teams and all the news surrounding camp. They will simply bet on a game based on what they know about the team from 2018. Big mistake.

Quite honestly I have found week 1 to be a bit of a challenge too. Its really hard to know what you are working with. A philosophy I have tended to use over the years:

  • Look for small point spread underdogs that could just as easily win outright. Any team from +1 to +3 that you can find no reason that they can’t win outright. Last year this was 3-2-1 ATS week 1.
  • Look for heavier home favorites to win and cover. Any team favored by 6 or more playing at home. Last year this group went 3-1 ATS in week 1 NFL.

It is up to you to be selective. If you absolutely cannot picture team A beating team B by the point spread, use your judgement and don’t bet that game.

Based on my week 1 betting strategy, the picks I will take this weekend are:

  • Green Bay +3
  • Buffalo +3
  • Philadelphia -9.5
  • Carolina +3
  • Seattle -9
  • Chargers -6.5
  • Dallas -7

Two games that fit these parameters are also Arizona +2.5 and New Orleans -7. But, I have removed those from my pick sheet because I simply don’t like them.

SF vs Tampa and Denver vs Oakland keep flip flopping between PK and a -1 favorite. They are no good for this approach.

In my mind when a team is plus 1-3 points , the line is basically saying “shit, I don’t know”. And to me the advantage here is the team getting the points.

When a team is laying 6 or more points at home they have a clear cut advantage and the home field is part of it. Opening week is when home fans are most rabid, that is, until the playoffs.

This is not a fool proof betting strategy but if you find yourself scratching your scalp heading into this weekend, this may help you find some direction. Good luck!

  • Scott Morris

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