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Sweet 16 Bet Report and ATP Picks

March 27, 2021
public betting trends Sweet 16

Its time for the big games. The betting public has had all week to throw down their money on teams against the spread. Earlier in the week the Sweet 16 betting spreads were issued and the public has reacted decisively. There are several games which the public clearly likes and that goes for picks and total money wagered.

If you have never heard of ATP (Against the Public) betting before, it amounts to the old sports bar contrarian story. Before the internet and instant stats, like those presented at this very website, barflies would sit around, drink their beer and use the public payphone to place their bets. There would always be at least one guy who went around the room and asked the guys what they bet. If there was a consensus favorite in the group, that same guy would scurry off to the pay phone right before the game started and place his own bet, one which went against everyone else. This is more formally known as “contrarian betting”. He probably not dare show his delight in winning his bet while everyone else was losing.

The figures below were gathered from William Hill US, a sportsbook company operating all over the United States.

MatchupSpreadTicketsMoney
OSU vs LOYLOY -6.5OSU 63%OSU 53%
VIL vs BAYBAY -7.5BAY 72%BAY 87%
ORAL vs ARKARK -11ORAL 72%ORAL 64%
SYR vs HOUHOU -6SYR 69%SYR 71%
CREI vs GONZGONZ -13.5GONZ 70%GONZ 78%
FSU vs MICHMICH -3MICH 57%MICH 59%
UCLA vs ALAALA -6.5ALA 64%ALA 71%
ORE vs USCUSC -2.5ORE 51%ORE 54%

If you are looking to bet contrarian, we recommend only betting those picks that are 67% or great for BOTH money and tickets. Based on this criteria, the picks for this weekend should be:

  • Villanova +7.5
  • Houston -6
  • Creighton +13.5

You can bet these picks at any one of the top rated sportsbooks

Rarely do we see the money and tickets trend on the same side for every single game. So, if you absolutely must have action on all eight games and wish to ignore the 67% rule, the picks would look something like this:

  • Loyola -6.5
  • Villanova +7.5
  • Arkansas -11
  • Houston -6
  • Creighton +13.5
  • FSU +3
  • UCLA +6.5
  • USC -2.5

Who knows, maybe you’ll hit them all. Stranger things have happened.

 

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