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2021 NBA Finals Series Odds and Pick

July 5, 2021

The finals are set and begin tomorrow evening. The Phoenix Suns play host to the Milwaukee Bucks to see who will be crowned the 2021 NBA Champion. Game 1 tips at 9:05 pm ET and has the Suns as 6 point favorites at home vs. the underdog Bucks. The total is listed 217.5 points.

The Phoenix Suns finished the regular season with a 51-21 record. The Suns also had an outstanding record against the spread. They were 42-28-2 ATS. At home the Sun were 27-9 straight up and 23-13 ATS. You can see why they are laying the points in game 1.

The Milwaukee Bucks finished the season with a regular season record of 46-26. Their ATS record was 32-40. They are 20-16 SU & 14-22 ATS away from Milwaukee this season. The Bucks are definitely better at home going 26-10 SU when playing in Milwaukee. You can definitely see home court advantage at work here and the odds may be flipped if the Bucks had earned the right to host 4 of the 7 games.

Series Price

The Suns are almost 2-1 favorites in this series currently sitting at -190 at Sportsbetting.ag
The Bucks are +165 odds to win the series. There are a variety of NBA series props available too which I will be posting in my next article which will be published later this afternoon.

Head to Head

The Suns were 2-0 this season against the Bucks this season. Both games were close. In both games the Suns survived by scoring one more point than the Bucks. Former NBA MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 47 points in their first matchup but it still wasn’t enough.

Pick

This leads us to the pick portion of this article. For the Bucks, it all comes down to whether or not their former MVP Giannis can play and if he will be 100%. To the Bucks credit, they were able to close out the Eastern Finals without Giannis. But they will need him if they are going to beat the Suns. He is listed as questionable.

All the evidence leads to the Suns winning this series. They won more regular season games than the Bucks. They won both of their games against the Bucks. And the home court advantage clearly belongs to the Suns. Furthermore, Milwaukee’s best player will not be 100% for the series. I’d take the Suns to win the series here.