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Trends Say You Should These Four NFL Picks for Week 15

December 15, 2021
NFL Free Picks Week 15

We’re back with this week with our NFL trend picks. Many people are awaiting these picks as they have gone 18-3 in the last 4 weeks since we started the segment, including 10-0 over the last two weeks. I know I have taken advantage of them myself and moved up from 1000+ place in the BetOnline Mega Contest to being in the top 150 (in the money).

Well, without further delay here are the four picks we isolated which have strong trends pointing in one direction.

Giants vs Cowboys

Spread: Dallas -10.5 at BetUS.com

Dallas is rolling after last week’s win against division foe Washington and a convincing win over the Saints the game before. The Giants are coming off two straight losses an cannot seem to put together any good or consistent football. Its a tale of two teams in opposite hemispheres in 2021.

Mike Glennon will start for the Giants as Daniel Jones is not cleared to play.

  • Dallas is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
  • Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
  • Dallas is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing NY Giants
  • Dallas is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing NY Giants
  • Dallas is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
  • Dallas is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games
  • Dallas is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
  • NY Giants are 8-16 ATS in its last 24 games at home
  • NY Giants are 8-16 SU in its last 24 games at home

The clear and obvious play is to take the Cowboys minus the points here.

 

Lions vs Cardinals

Spread: Arizona -13.5 at BetUS.com

One of the best teams in the league is taking on the worst team. The Lions are hapless losers but have been playing semi-inspired football as of late. It is true that last week they got smashed by the Broncos 38-10. But before that they beat Minnesota (for their only win of the season) and they tied Pittsburgh. They lost by just two points to Chicago on Thanksgiving Day and lost only by a FG against Cleveland.

  • Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Detroit is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
  • Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona
  • Arizona is 1-3-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit

Begrudgingly, the numbers say to take the worst team in football against one of the best teams coming off a loss. Maybe buy the point and make it +14.5

 

Dolphins vs Jets

Spread: Miami -9 at YouWager.lv

Miami is playing good football and looking for their sixth win in a row. Meanwhile the Jets are just 3-10 and are one of the two or three worst teams in the league, maybe only Jacksonville and Detroit are worse.

One of Miami’s wins at the start of this winning streak was against said Jets. It was a 24-17 hard fought win in New Jersey. Its a win which gave Miami some confidence. The Dolphins are without a bunch of their running backs due to covid (eye roll). They will be starting Duke Johnson and as of yesterday Johnson was the only RB listed on the depth chart. Their running game has sucked anyway so this shouldn’t be that big of a deal.

  • Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
  • Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
  • Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
  • Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets
  • Miami is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing NY Jets
  • Miami is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets
  • Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jet
  • NY Jets are 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
  • NY Jets are 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
  • NY Jets are 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
  • NY Jets are 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road

The keys to the Dolphin victory here are to do what they do best, which is short passes to the left and right with the occasional long shot. Tua is averaging 80% completions in his last several games. Miami minus the points is the play being dictated by the trends.

 

Bucs vs Saints

Spread: Bucs -11 at BetAnySports.eu

The Bucs are winning games but struggled some last week when they let the Buffalo Bills come back from a 24-3 deficit to send the game into OT. They ended up winning with a long Tom Brady TD pass. But this games showed that the Bucs can be scored on and don’t exactly put teams away.

  • New Orleans is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games on the road
  • New Orleans is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games on the road
  • New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
  • New Orleans is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
  • New Orleans is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
  • New Orleans is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay

Of course these numbers reflect the situation before the Saints lost Drew Brees and Jameis Winston. The Saints are playing better now that Taysom Hill has some reps under his belt. RB Alvin Kamara has brought new life to this team as well. Looks for the Saints D to step up and keep this one competitive.