Best Pitchers to Back Early in MLB Season
April 2, 2024
After one series, we’ve got an eye on some of MLB’s best pitchers to back early in 2024. History shows us one big name that MLB bettors should probably stay away from. It’s often difficult to bet on pitchers early in a new season because of a lack of track records. Relying on statistics from a previous season can help, but sometimes doesn’t tell the complete story.
With that in mind, we have identified a handful of pitchers to consider betting on early in this new 2024 MLB season.
New Team, Similar Results
Corbin Burnes moved from Milwaukee to Baltimore and made his first start of the 2024 season last week. Burnes has recorded double-digit victories in each of the last three seasons. He also has ERAs of 3.39 or less in each of the last three seasons.
In his new Orioles uniform, Burnes went out and allowed one hit in a dominant six innings against the Los Angeles Angels. Burnes struck out 11 and picked up his first win of the 2024 season.
It’s Miller Time
The Dodgers Bobby Miller is off to a great start in 2024. MIller got his first win of the new season after pitching six innings against St. Louis last week. Miller gave up just two hits and struck out 11 as the Dodgers won 6-3.
Miller came on strong in 2023 after his first start in May. On June 10 of last season, Miller was 3-0 with a 0.78 ERA. He would end up 11-4 on the season with a 3.76 ERA. After his first start, Miller looks like a candidate to back in First Five bets.
Keep an Eye on These Starters
Philadelphia’s Cristopher Sanchez finished last season with a 3.44 ERA which was pretty much in line with his 3.74 xERA. He was 26th among pitchers with at least 110 IP in K-BB percentage and he got off to a good start in 2024.
In his first start, he pitched five innings and gave up two earned runs while striking out eight. He was not involved in the decision and did not allow a home run. That is something he had difficulty with last season. He threw much harder in the spring compared to all of last season.
Boston’s Kutter Crawford finished last year 6-8 with a 4.04 ERA. He was the victim of some bad luck as shown by his 3.25 xERA. Crawford pitched six innings in his opener against Seattle. He allowed three hits and no runs and struck out seven but was not involved in the decision.
Jared Jones is projected to have a 4.75 ERA for the Pittsburgh Pirates this season. He’s right at that after his first start, but he did strike out 10 in leading the Pirates to a 9-3 win over Miami. Jones didn’t allow an earned run all spring. The Pirates are averaging nearly eight runs per game, so you know Jones will get run support.
Approach Snell With Caution
Blake Snell is the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner. He went 14-9 last season for the San Diego Padres and signed this offseason with San Francisco. His 2.25 ERA and outstanding second half of the 2023 season is what propelled him to the Cy Young award.
What happened before Snell caught fire last season is why MLB bettors might want to wait until after the All-Star break to jump on the Snell train. Last year, Snell lost four of his first five starts. On May 31, Snell was 1-6 with a 4.50 ERA.
Snell does have two Cy Young awards. He won the AL Cy Young in 2018 while with the Tampa Bay Rays. In his first year with the Padres in 2021, Snell didn’t complete six innings in a start until his ninth. He would finish that season 7-6 with a 4.50 ERA. In 2022, Snell was 0-5 at the end of June. While he has continually finished seasons strong, he has repeatedly gotten off to slow starts.
