How to Bet the College Football Bowl Season
Scott Morris | December 13, 2025
It’s that time of year already. The 2025 college football regular season came to an end on Thanksgiving weekend. We had our conference championship weekend and the announcement of the College Football Playoff bracket. Along with the bracket, we got all of our 2025 bowl matchups
As a college football bettor, you can look at the bowl season, aka postseason, as its own separate season. There are some distinct differences between the regular season and postseason and understanding those differences, as well as the similarities, is the key to betting the college football bowl season.
Remember The Jimmies & Joes
You will often hear coaches talk about the “Jimmies and Joes” which is simply a reference to players. Sometimes, you just don’t have enough good players to win. Sometimes you have a loaded roster and you’re simply much better than your opponent.
During bowl season, it is a must that you check to see which players are playing and which are not. Over the last decade, it has become more and more common for high-level, elite players to skip bowl games as they prepare to either 1) enter the transfer portal or 2) begin preparations for the upcoming NFL draft.
If a team will be missing its starting quarterback and the backup hasn’t really played all season, do you really want to put your faith in that offense? Of course, missing some players isn’t the only reason to bet or not to bet on a certain team. It is, though, extremely important.
Check the bowl opt-outs before placing a bet. X, formerly known as Twitter, is a great option to check on individual teams and which players might be sitting out a bowl game for whatever reason.
Motivation
There may be no factor more important in the bowl season than motivation. A team that lost down the stretch and lost out on a chance at a conference championship and/or a spot in the College Football Playoff really doesn’t have much to play for.
However, the team that finished 2-10 in 2024 and then turned around and went 10-3 and won a conference championship will be extremely motivated to prove itself and go out 11-3. That’s the case for Kennesaw State this season.
The Owls went 2-10 last year. They fired their head coach and brought in Jerry Mack. In Year 1, Mack and the Owls went 10-3 and won the Conference USA championship. They will face Western Michigan, the MAC champions, in the Myrtle Beach Bowl.
Teams like Kennesaw, those with zero to three wins in the previous season, usually perform well in bowl games the next year. Since 2005, teams with three or fewer wins in a previous season have covered in over 70 percent of their bowl games the following year.
Watch out for teams with .500 records. Those teams are typically motivated to finish over .500. Since 2005, six-win teams in a bowl game playing a team with a winning record have covered the spread nearly 59 percent of the time.
The Academies
Players at Army, Navy, and Air Force are just built differently. Now, Air Force had a rough season (4-8) and won’t play in a bowl this year, but both Army and Navy will. Army will face UConn in the Fenway Bowl. Navy plays Cincinnati in the Liberty Bowl.
Bettors, be careful. Academy players are motivated no matter what. It’s in their DNA. Over the past four decades, service academy teams playing in bowl games have covered the spread over 70 percent of the time. You can always bet they will play hard and play to the end.
That doesn’t mean you blindly bet them to cover but take that history into consideration before placing a bet.
Big Bowl Dogs Bite
Pay attention to double-digit underdogs in a bowl game. Typically, you’ll find Group of 5 programs getting 10-plus points from Power 4 teams playing in a lower tier bowl game. For example, you might have a team from the Big Ten or SEC that finished with a strong record like 9-3.
The Power conference team didn’t have a shot at a conference title or the playoff. As a result, they get placed in a bowl game that almost seems like a slap in the face to their program. Oftentimes, these teams don’t play well in their bowl game.
The heavily favored Power 4 team just isn’t as motivated. The Group of 5 team, though, comes ready to play to prove they can hang with Power 4 teams. The result is a cover rate in the 57 to 58 percent range for double digit underdogs in bowl games.
Keep It Simple – Fade the Public
It’s one of the oldest and most popular betting strategies around. It’s a simple idea. Whichever team the public is backing, take the opposite. The house wins more often than the public.
Sportsbooks know which team the average bettor will want to back. Public bettors like popular teams. They like favorites. They like ranked teams. They also like to back the Over when betting totals. Oddsmakers know this and set their lines and odds accordingly.
Especially in the games with a large handle, there is value to be found in betting against the public. The numbers back this strategy.
Since 2005, teams getting 66 percent or more of the spread tickets have covered just 42.9 percent of the time. If we expand it to teams with 60 percent or more of the spread tickets, we find those teams cover just 42.4 percent of the time.
Whatever you do, before you start betting on bowl games, keep the following in mind.
- Check the rosters and opt-out lists
- Look for a motivational edge
- Does the game feature a service academy?
- Check for double-digit underdogs
- Fade the public when it makes sense
