Popular Upset Picks for 2026 NCAA Tournament

The Madness is about to get going. In a few days the NCAA tournament gets under way. The brackets have been set and are ready to be obliterated.

As you probably know, first round major upsets happen every year. 2026 will be no different. Identifying these upsets and picking them in your bracket can make the difference between being totally out of the contest by Saturday or having a shot to win big bucks. Check out this $200K real money contest. Entry is only $20.

Talking heads are already telling us which underdog teams they think have the best chance of upsetting their favorited counterpart. Among these first round upset predictions is #10 Santa Clara over #7 Kentucky. This one comes courtesy of USA Today. They said “This is Santa Clara’s first NCAA Tournament bid in 30 years. It got here with an offense that can score 80-plus points with relative ease. Two wins against Saint Mary’s proved Santa Clara’s mettle. Santa Clara coach Herb Sendek, a former Kentucky assistant under Rick Pitino, has won NCAA Tournament games with three different schools.”

#11 South Florida upsetting #6 Louisville is a topic of discussion as well. USF is a school known for running hard and jacking threes. If they hit a decent % of these threes they have a shot at a nice upset. Even if you don’t like them to win straight up, the Bulls are getting +5.5 points according to our very own live odds feed. It may be worth taking the points here.

#11 VCU over #6 UNC is one that media figures seem to like as well. Remember about 15 years ago when VCU shocked the nation by making it all the way to the Final Four? Pepperidge Farm remembers. I think this feat is still fresh (even after 15 years) in many analysts’ minds. UNC is only favored by 2.5 points at the sportsbooks so this one wouldn’t be a shocker if it were to happen.

#13 Hofstra over #4 Alabama has been mentioned, Hofstra went 2-0 SU against ACC opponents this year (Syracuse & Pitt) and also defeated Seton Hall in the Big East. But they also went down to Houston to face a top tier team and got absolutely annihilated by a score of 80-44. This establishes the fact that they can win against mid-level D1 talent but get exposed against tier 1 teams. Ranked #18 in the land, and having beat teams like Tennessee, Arkansas & Kentucky, it is clear that Alabama is near top-tier level and should dispatch of Hofstra pretty easily.

The problem for Hofstra is they are not playing at home where they built a 10-2 record. They are away from the comfort of their home digs and this season they were just 9-8 when this happened. I’m staying far away from this one SU and ATS.