Betting MLB Underdogs

In baseball, the majority of public bettors prefer favorites over underdogs. The typical Joe believes that the favorite is favored to win for a reason. Joe Public also likes popular teams like the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers, especially when they are favorites.

Too many amateur bettors don’t understand the idea that you can actually make money betting on baseball even if you lose more games than you win. You just have to be smart enough to realize that the profit on each wager exceeds the risk. 

That means you have to find strong value on your MLB bets. Value is the gap between a team’s actual chances of winning and the price you pay with the odds. It also means you need to find quality MLB underdogs to bet. 

At standard moneyline odds of -110, you have to wager $110 to earn a profit of $100. However, the same $100 bet on a +110 underdog yields a profit of $110. Find strong underdogs and your bankroll will grow.

Favorites vs. Underdogs

Over the past several years (five in this case, counting only the regular seasons), favorites, of course, have won a lot more games than underdogs. In fact, the numbers are below.

• Favorites: Win rate – 57.5%
• Underdogs: Win rate 42.5%

The average line on a favorite in that time period came out to -143. The average underdog over those five seasons checked in at +137 odds. 

Now, blindly betting on all favorites looks great until you realize that if a bettor had done so over the past five seasons, that same bettor would be down somewhere in the neighborhood of $7,000 to $10,000, assuming a $100 stake. Likewise, betting on every random underdog is not a recipe for success either.

So, how do bettors attack betting on MLB underdogs?

Bet MLB Dogs Early in the Season

Early in a MLB season, oddsmakers are still getting used to the new lineups. This is one of the best times to jump on underdogs. Additionally, all 30 teams are still alive in the playoff race in March, April, and even into May.

By June, it will be very evident who is and who isn’t a contender. Simply said, poor teams have a lot more motivation to play hard early in the season, and if you go back over the years, you can see how beneficial it is to concentrate on the dogs in April.

Underdogs in April have gone from 1,487-1,866 during the past ten years. The average odds in these games are +131.3, which translates into a ROI (return on investment) of +1.0% and profit of $3,114 on a straightforward $100. Even though the win rate is only 44.43%, we earn enough of a profit on each win that we end up in the black.

In 2026 so far, there are a handful of underdogs that have made sense to back early. Take the Colorado Rockies as an example. The Rockies were horrible in 2025. They finished with the worst record in MLB and expectations were not all that high heading into this season.

Through their first 13 games, Colorado has a losing record at 6-7. However, if a $100 bettor wagered blindly on the Rockies to win each of their 13 games thus far, that bettor would be up $1,070! That’s the beauty of backing MLB underdogs early in a new season.

Another strong early season angle in MLB is betting on underdogs of +105 or more that have lost the first two games of a series and were underdogs in the most recent loss. These MLB underdogs – over the last ten seasons – have won at a 47% rate and have provided a solid return on investment (ROI) of +12%.

MLB Road Dogs Too

Road underdogs early in the MLB season are also a solid bet. You want to find MLB road underdogs given odds between +105 and +150 that have an overall losing record and are playing against a team with a winning record. 

This strategy works best in April and May. Over the past ten MLB seasons, these road underdogs have a winning percentage of 48.1%. Their average odds are between +120 and +125 and bettors have an ROI of +7.2%.

Don’t Forget Divisional MLB Dogs

Divisional matchups in baseball are even more significant because teams will play 13 games against each of their divisional opponents. That accounts for 52 of a team’s 162 games. Divisional games also create a lot of familiarity with opponents.

That familiarity tends to favor underdogs, especially after an underdog has lost Game 1 of a series. Now, this system takes divisional home underdogs listed between +105 and +150 that have a season record of .500 or below. Those teams have lost Game 1 of a series as the home favorite and are now the underdog. 

What’s interesting when you dive into this type of situation is that the lines don’t change all that much. A team with a .500 record is given roughly the same odds to win as an underdog with a .440 winning percentage. 

Over the last ten seasons, teams in this situation – home dog after a loss in Game 1 as a home favorite now given odds of +105 to +150 – win well over 50 percent of the time.

Bet Home Underdogs Off a Long Road Trip

There are times each MLB season when teams will go on 7- to 10-game road trips. Playing on the road can be a challenge, even for professionals. Like anyone, MLB players look forward to returning home and they give bettors an opportunity to cash.

What’s interesting in these cases is that the longer the road trip, the more often the home underdog wins. For example, MLB teams coming off a 10-game road trip and then playing as a home underdog in their next game win 49 percent of the time. 

Teams coming off 7-, 8-, and 9-game road swings win roughly 46 to 48 percent of the time when they play their first game back as an underdog. The return on investment is typically between 5 and 10 percent on these home underdogs after the long road trip.

Bet MLB Dogs After a Big Night

This is an interesting situation. You have a team that just goes off one night and comes back the next night as an underdog. When a team finishes a high-scoring game, bettors should consider backing that same team if they are an underdog in the next game.

This year’s Colorado Rockies give us another great example. The Rockies pulled a huge upset in Game 1 of a series against Houston. Colorado won the game 9-7. In Game 2 of the series, the Rockies were listed as a +145 underdog. They were also at home, which adds even more value and sure enough the Rockies went on to win Game 2, 5-1.

Bettors should look for teams that have scored 8 or more runs the night before and then are listed as the underdog in the next game. Over the past 10 seasons, these underdogs win nearly 48 percent of the time and provide a return on investment of right around 5 percent.

The bottom line is this. If you can spot underdogs that have value, you can add to your bankroll even with a winning percentage below 50 percent. Do your research and bet wisely. Find those MLB underdogs that make sense and watch your winnings grow!