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Taking Advantage of Early Lines

Scott Morris | August 12, 2019
betting early lines

Those who set the opening lines try to create numbers close to the public consensus, but they do make mistakes. Jump on these. Lines come out eight to nine days prior to games, but much earlier before the start of the season. On average, I find approximately one to three mistakes per week. This number is dramatically higher now, before most have done the proper research. The sharp money attacks these numbers early. Do not ever wager on a contest without positive EV.

But What If You Missed the Early Lines?

OK, so you got tied up doing something and missed checking the early numbers.
Or, maybe you don’t feel confident enough deciphering the preliminary data.

So, check where the line opened earliest, and see how or why it’s moved. (But please note that…Things have changed. “Bricks and Mortar” books don’t set the lines anymore. Offshore books set the lines ,ie., Pinnacle and the Cris/Bookmaker brand)

1) Was the move gradual or immediate?
2) Was it due to injury(s)?
3) Have the analytics changed?

This is bettor against bettor, not against the bookmaker. There is a definite advantage to analyzing a side that took the earliest action, but you won’t get the same value as the advanced sharp money.
Note: If the early line has moved more than 2.5 points, you’ve probably lost an opportunity.

There are still many games out of position!

​​​There are playable preseason games (unfortunately, not that many), but most will have less to do with talent, and more to do with analytics, coaching intentions and special circumstances.


John Rothschild - sports handicapperContributed by John Rothschild
(Recent articles at SI, ESPN, Bloomberg News,
New York Sports Scene, and USRacing.com)

Author of Best Selling:
Football Betting Made Easy

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AP Top 25 College Football Poll

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AP TeamW/LSeason StartLive Odds
1Ohio State1-0+675+575
2Penn State1-0+700+600
3LSU1-0+1200+800
4Georgia1-0+650+650
5Miami FL1-0+2800+1200
6Oregon2-0+1200+1600
7Texas0-1+600+700
8Clemson0-1+850+1600
9Notre Dame0-1+1000+1800
10South Carolina1-0+6600+6600
11Illinois1-0+15000+15000
12Arizona St.1-0+12500+12500
13Florida1-0+3300+3300
14Florida State1-0+8000+6600
15Michigan1-0+3300+3300
16Iowa State2-0+20000+20000
17SMU1-0+10000+10000
18Oklahoma1-0+4000+2800
19Texas A&M1-0+3300+3300
20Ole Miss1-0+4000+4000
21Alabama0-1+900+1800
22Tennessee1-0+6600+8000
23Indiana1-0+12500+12500
24Texas Tech1-0+10000+12500
25Utah1-0+4000+8000