A Week 1 NFL Betting Strategy
Scott Morris | September 2, 2019
Betting on week 1 of NFL action can be a challenge for various reasons.
- Most of the teams have had roster changes in the offseason.
- The teams you will see on Sunday will barely resemble the teams you watched in the pre-season.
Many sports bettors don’t take real time and effort to study the teams and all the news surrounding camp. They will simply bet on a game based on what they know about the team from 2018. Big mistake.
Quite honestly I have found week 1 to be a bit of a challenge too. Its really hard to know what you are working with. A philosophy I have tended to use over the years:
- Look for small point spread underdogs that could just as easily win outright. Any team from +1 to +3 that you can find no reason that they can’t win outright. Last year this was 3-2-1 ATS week 1.
- Look for heavier home favorites to win and cover. Any team favored by 6 or more playing at home. Last year this group went 3-1 ATS in week 1 NFL.
It is up to you to be selective. If you absolutely cannot picture team A beating team B by the point spread, use your judgement and don’t bet that game.
Based on my week 1 betting strategy, the picks I will take this weekend are:
- Green Bay +3
- Buffalo +3
- Philadelphia -9.5
- Carolina +3
- Seattle -9
- Chargers -6.5
- Dallas -7
Two games that fit these parameters are also Arizona +2.5 and New Orleans -7. But, I have removed those from my pick sheet because I simply don’t like them.
SF vs Tampa and Denver vs Oakland keep flip flopping between PK and a -1 favorite. They are no good for this approach.
In my mind when a team is plus 1-3 points , the line is basically saying “shit, I don’t know”. And to me the advantage here is the team getting the points.
When a team is laying 6 or more points at home they have a clear cut advantage and the home field is part of it. Opening week is when home fans are most rabid, that is, until the playoffs.
This is not a fool proof betting strategy but if you find yourself scratching your scalp heading into this weekend, this may help you find some direction. Good luck!
- Scott Morris
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