What You Should Know About Paid Pick Services
Scott Morris | August 7, 2014
Ever since I can remember, so-called expert handicappers have been selling picks. I remember back in the day watching a group of handicappers such as Wayne Allyn Root on WGN Saturday mornings in the fall. They were all pay-for-a-pick handicappers that were promoting their services.
It was an entertaining show. I wasn’t a sports bettor at the time because I was young. But I always got a kick out of their, “I’m unbeaten in my Lock of the Week” claims. I didn’t know if they were telling the truth or not. I was too young so what did I know? As I got older and became interested in betting on sports, I did a bit of research on these pay-for-a-pick services. Here’s what I’ve learned:
They’re just like stock brokers
If you are so skilled at sports betting that you can win 70%+ of the time, you’ll make millions at the sportsbooks. What’s the point of selling your picks? You don’t need the money. The best sports handicappers don’t just give away picks for $9.99. It would be foolish. Just like a stock broker that claims a stock is a guaranteed goldmine.
If that stock really was a guaranteed goldmine, why would he want to share this information with others? It doesn’t make sense. Does that mean you shouldn’t seek the advice of a licensed broker? No. They can help you make smart financial decisions. But they’re really just blowing smoke. Same with a sports handicapper that makes ridiculous claims.
It’s always a small sample size
Even the worst handicapper gets some games right. It’s impossible to wager on more than, say, twenty games at not have at least a winner or two. A mediocre handicapper can find a way to make them appear to know what they’re talking about.
Let’s say you went 100-100 ATS last year in NFL games. Since you need 53% winners to turn a profit, that would be a losing season. However, if you dig deep, you could find a segment of games you did well over a small sample size. For example, maybe you were 13-4 on Monday Night Football games. It’s not that you’re just so great at picking Monday Night games. That’s more of a coincidence. If you dig deep, you’ll find a segment of games where you did outstanding. It doesn’t prove anything.
Is It wasted money?
Paying for picks can be a killer to your bankroll, even if the handicapper is legit. Think about it. You have to win 53% of your games to turn a profit. The best handicappers only win 60% or so of their games. If you’re spending $10 per game, that’s going to eat at your profits. You’ll have to win far more than 53% of your games in order to turn just the slightest profit.
You don’t need a pay-for-a-pick service. You need to improve your game. Our website is a great resource. We give picks away for free because we don’t feel you should pay for them. Plus, we give away some great advice for free. Instead of spending for a handicapping service, read our advice articles on here and check out our free picks. Why pay for something you don’t need?
