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2022 AFC and NFC Championship Games Best Bets

January 26, 2022
stafford and mahomes play in their conference championship game this weekend

So its Wednesday and we have had three days to look at these two games. We have analyzed the playoff games as well as the regular season matchups and have come to a conclusion on how to bet these two games. The current lines are:

CIN +7
KC -7

SF +3.5
LAR -3.5

lines from BetUS.com

First, I would like to say that there is a trend play here if you want to play it by itself. And even though it may cover, I am not feeling it myself. There is conflicting data on the K.C. vs Bengals game but there is very clear trend data on the 49ers vs the Rams:

  • San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
  • San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
  • San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Rams
  • San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
  • San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
  • San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Rams

Like I said, the Niners may very well cover but in my mind there is an equal chance that they may not. So, I am playing something I never do. I am betting a teaser on the Rams and the Chiefs together. This will make the Rams +2.5 and the Chiefs -1.

I rarely, if ever, play Teasers. But this is one incidence where I feel comfortable with both favorites winning outright. I can see the Rams and the Chiefs playing one another in the Super Bowl. Look ahead lines have that game with KC -6, which I think may be a tad bit high. The Rams defense has more Pro Bowl caliber players and the Chiefs are very suspect on defense. The “wild card” factor of course is Mahomes. But, he seems to enjoy playing down to competition and sweating out the last minute wins. That’s all the more reason I like the Rams in that matchup. In fact, I wouldn’t be totally surprised with a Rams straight up win upset. Remember, you heard it here first folks!

  • Scott Morris